BAKU. America and Azerbaijan resemble each other closely in at least one way. The current president is the son of the former president. President Ilham Aliyev is the son of former strongman Heydar Aliyev. Heydar Aliyev must have been quite a thinker since you see his words posted all over the country. Would it shock you to learn that the main street in every town as well as the airport and numerous buildings are named for him?

Heydar Aliyev was a truly skilled politician as his staying power in both Soviet and post-Soviet politics reflected. He would not have led a Soviet republic for over a decade and become the first "Turk" on the Politburo if he was not far wilier than Karl Rove. My favorite Heydar story is how he gave Brezhnev a ring with a large jewel surrounded by fifteen small diamonds representing Brezhnev and the fifteen Soviet republics.

Heydar was eventually sacked by Gorbachev but skillfully turned the moment when the first democratically elected government of Azerbaijan fell apart to his personal advantage and returned to power. His ability to bring stability to Azerbaijan in the wake of a chaotic period capped by a war with Armenia that resulted in around 800,000 internally displaced people and a loss of a big chunk of territory gave Heydar more than a little genuine popularity.

In a manner that would have made Machiavelli proud, Heydar consolidated his power and was the unquestioned ruler of Azerbaijan until he died. Ilham Aliyev's crown rests far less easily on his head. Heydar's cronies do not respect Ilham in the same manner so the power hierarchy in Azerbaijan is now far less clear even though Ilham Aliyev is president and his New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) controls parliament.

Discussing the political situation can be a surreal experience in Azerbaijan. My students in the United States laudably, if idealistically, often find it hard to believe that politics cannot be about ideas but only about power. In Azerbaijan, the concept that elections are about anything but power is a truly foreign one to most people, including parliamentary candidates.

When I met with a group of independent candidates, not one was either able or willing to tell me a single thing that the planned to try to do to improve the lives of their constituents if they are elected. The rise of many opposition candidates is a welcome development in Azerbaijan's progress toward democracy. However, I was about ready to vote to reelect the corrupt government by the end of this frustrating meeting!

While the opposition does not appear to have too many ideas about how to improve Azerbaijan, they complain loudly about the many measures that the government is taking, especially in rural constituencies, to rig the elections. Ironically, this does resemble my class discussions closely. Unfortunately, the resemblance is to my classes about the many methods of disfranchisement used to deprive African Americans of the right to vote in the pre-Voting Rights Act South.

Opposition supporters, especially outside of Baku, appear to have trouble getting the identity cards required to vote. On the other hand, government supporters sometimes have multiple voter cards so they can vote in multiple constituencies--called "merry-go-round" voting here. The opposition finds it impossible to gain permits to rally in central Baku which has led to illegal rallies in which opposition supporters have been beaten by police.

There is nevertheless some democratic space in Azerbaijan. Unlike in Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea, an opposition is allowed to exist. Photos of people who were beaten at the rallies did not appear in government-controlled newspapers but they did appear in opposition publications. Critically, the story was also covered by private television networks here.

The focus on the right to hold rallies also perplexes me somewhat even if the actions of the government are deplorable. Azerbaijan is a small country of a few million people so its 125 constituencies are small--much smaller than my state legislative districts in Maryland. Candidates can campaign by knocking on doors. When I suggested this idea to some, they said they could not because it would endanger their neighbors though another opposition candidate said that these candidates were simply lazy.

This may reflect another urban/rural difference as the local government factotums (called excoms--sort of like prefects) act with a heavier hand outside of the capital where foreigners or television cameras are less likely to watch. Regardless, don't bet even one manat (Azerbaijan's currency, 4500 manat is about a dollar) on the YAP losing power. The number of seats held by other parties or independents may increase both due to American pressure and to greater activity by opposition candidates.

The government is clearly nervous that the opposition will attempt a street revolution on the model of the Rose, Orange or Tulip Revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kirgizstan after the election. This is highly unlikely. Azerbaijanis probably want more democracy and less corruption but they also value the stability brought by the current government. Moreover, the opposition remains far too fragmented to mount a credible claim to government or to convince people to rally in sufficient numbers in the street to overthrow the entrenched regime.