The following journals are the primary sources for articles cited in this course (the acronyms introduced here are used in the subsequent list of articles). I recommend that you read the macro articles in the most recent issues of each of these journals. Note that the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Applied Econometrics, The Journal of Economic History, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, The Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, The Journal of Political Economy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, and The Review of Economics and Statistics are available through JSTOR.
In this course we use at most a chapter or two from most of these texts. Most are on reserve. Please recognize that highlighting, underlining, or in any fashion defacing library books or journals constitutes unacceptable academic behavior.
, 2001, Neurophilosophy of Free Will (Bradford Books/MIT Press: Cambridge, MA) 0-262-23214-6
, Elie R. D. Canetti, David E. Lebow, and Jeremy B. Rudd. Asking About Prices: A New Approach to Understanding Price Stickiness. NewYork: Russel Sage Foundation, 1998.
Hayashi, Fumio, 2000, Econometrics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press) isbn: 0-691-01018-8
Monetarist, Keynesian and New Classical Economics (New York: NYU Press, 1984)
Monetary Theory New York : McGraw-Hill, c1981. ISBN: 0070268401 Call Number: HG221 .H3
, 2001, Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press) isbn: 0-691-04921-1
, 2001, Financial Econometrics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press) isbn: 0-691-08872-1
, 1990, Handbook of Monetary Economics vol 1 & 2. (Amsterdam ; New York : North-Holland) isbn: 0444880275 (set); 0444880259 (v. 1); 0444880267 (v. II) Call Number: HG221 .H26 v.1 and v.2
, 2000, Econometrics (Princeton: Princeton University Press) isbn: 0-691-01018-8
, 2000, Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press) isbn 0-262-19451-1
Jane Hahn, "LaTeX for Everyone, a reference guide and tutorial for typesetting documents using a Computer," Prentice-Hall, N.J. 1993, ISBN 0-13-605908-2
1997, Mathematica by Example 2nd edition (Academic Press)
2000, The Latex Design Companion (Addison Wesley Longman)
1998, The LATEX 3 Style Guide & Reference Manual (Addison Wesley Longman)
Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S., et al., Computational Finance 1999 (MIT Press, 2000) isbn 0-262-01178-6
Peter, Endogenous Growth Theory (MIT Press, 1998)
New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996)
1994, Price Rigidity: Causes and Macroeconomic Implications (Oxford: Oxford University Press) isbn 0-19-828760-7
K.J. Arrow, and D. Pines (eds), 1988, The Economic as an Evolving Complex System (Redwood City, CA: Addison-Wesley)
1997, The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass.
Keynes's General Theory and Accumulation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
D. Demery and N. Duck, Rational Expectations in Macroeconomics 2nd Edition (New York: Basil-Blackwell, 1992)
1999, Generational Accounting Around the World, (University of Chicago Press, 1999) isbn 0-226-03213-2 NBER Project Report series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1999. ISBN 0-226-03213-2 Call Number: HJ9755 .A93 1999
Money, Expectations, and Business Cycles (New York: Academic Press, 1981)
Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Study (MIT Press, 1997)
, Optimization and Stability Theory for Economic Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990). (Used only as a reference on mathematical techniques.)
1990, Adaptive Algorithms and Stochastic Approximations (Springer-Verlag)
, 1999, Inflation Targettting: Lessons from the International Experience (Princeton University Press) isbn 0-691-05955-1
Alan J.; and Willems, Jan C., (eds) The Ricatti Equation (NY: Springer, 1991) ISBN 0-387-53099-1
, 1989, Lectures on Macroeconomics (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1989).
1999, Computational Techniques for Modelling Learning in Economics (Kluwer Academic Publishers) isbn 0-7923-8503-9 Call Number: HB135 .C632 1999
1996, Dynamic Economics: Optimization by the Lagrange Method (Oxford: Oxford University Press)
Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1999)
2000, The Complexity Vision and the Teaching of Economics (Edward Elgar) isbn: 1-84064-252-1
1998, The Guide to the Fedral Budget: Fiscal 1999 (London: Rowman and Littlefield)
1993, The Philosophy of the Austrian School (Routledge) ISBN/ISSN: 0-415-08647-7
1994, Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory (Brookfield, VT: Edward Elgar).
Understanding Consumption Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992
Macroeconomic Aspects of Social Security Reform Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Macroeconomics, No. 2, 1997, 1-87.
(ed), 1999, Issues in privatizing Social Security : report of an expert panel of the National Academy of Social Insurance National Academy of Social Insurance (U.S.). Panel on Privatization of Social Security. (Cambridge, Mass : MIT Press, 1999.)
1999, Ox - An Object-Oriented Matrix Programming Language (Timberlake Consultants)
, 1994, New Perspectives in Monetary Macroeconomics: Explorations in the Tradition of Hyman Mynski (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press) isbn 0-472-10472-1 Call Number: HG3881 .N414
1996, 2000, 2000, The Cambridge Economic History of the United States vols. 1,2,3 (Cambridge) isbn: 521-39442-2, 521-55307-5, 521-55308-3 Call Number: HC103 .C26 1996 v.1, v.2, v.3
1996, Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up, isbn 0-2620-5053-6 Call Number: H61 .E67 (Cambridge: MIT Press)
2000, Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics, (Princeton University Press)
2000, Applied Macroeconometrics (Oxford University Press) isbn 0198775830 Call Number: HB139 .F38 2001
Foundations of Monetary Theory, Denis P. O'Brien (ed) (Pickering and Chatto, 1994) isbn 1-85196-190-9 (6 volumes)
The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade (MIT Press, 1999)
1996, Economic Dynamics 2nd edition (New York: Springer) isbn 3-540-60988-1 GM: HB135 .G36 1996
Competition, Technology and Money: Classical and Post-Keynesian Perspectives (Aldershot: Edward Elgar) p. 143--185.
1990, The SGML Handbook (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press)
1986, Computers and Typesetting, colume C (The METAFONTbook) (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley)
1996, README.1ST: SGML for Writers and Editors (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall)
von Bechtolsheim, S., 1994, TeX in Practice (New York: Springer-Verlag)
1992, TeX by Topic: A TeXnician's Reference (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley)
1995, Handbook of Logic in Artificial Intelleigence and Logic Programming vol. 4 (isbn: 85379103)
1999, Microeconomic Theories of Imperfect Competition (Edward Elgar) isbn:1-85898-146-8
1964, Aggregation in Economic Analysis: An Introductory Survey (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press)
Growth Theory vol. I, II, III, Edwin Burmeister and Robert Becker (eds), (Brookfield, VT: Edward Elgar, 1990) (A collection of the seminal papers.)
1995, A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory (Cambridge: MIT Press)
1998, Workbook on Cointegration (Oxford Univ Press)
1996, Time-Series-Based Econometrics: Unit Roots and Cointegrations (Oxford: Oxford University Press) isbn 0-19-877353-6
A Theory of Growth and Its Validation by the Turkish Experience (Istanbul: Institute of Business Economics,Istanbul University, 1990)
Hiriart-Urruty, Jean-Baptiste, and Claude Lemarechal, Convex Analysis and Minimization Algorithms I: Fundamentals, Comprehensive Studies in Mathmatics, vol. 305 (NY: Springer, 1993)
, 1996, Aggregate Money Demand Functions: Empirical Applications in Cointegrated Systems (Kluwer) isbn 0-7923-9704-5
and Melvin W. Reder, Rational Choice: The Contrast betweeen Economics and Psychology, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987)
1986, From Trade-offs to Policy Ineffectiveness: A History of the Phillips Curve (Richmond: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
Introduction to Economic Growth (Norton & Co.: New York, 1998)
Growth, (MIT Press) volumes 1 and 2
Inflation, Unemployment, and Money: Interpretations of the Phillips Curve (Elgar, 1998) isbn 1-85898-457-2
1991, Collected Works of Michal Kalecki vols. 1 & 2 (NY: Oxford University Press, ) ISBN 0-19-828664-3
1936, General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936)
2000, The Foundations of Monetary Economics, vols. 1,2,3 (Edward Elgar) isbn:1-85898-997-3
Robert E., 1981, Studies in Business-Cycle Theory, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press)
2000, Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective: A. W. Phillips (Cambridge) isbn: 57135-9
, 2000, Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press) isbn 0-262-19451-1
Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies (Oxford Univ Press 1999)
Generalized Method of Moments Estimation (Cambridge 1999) isbn:66013-0
Monetary Economics: Theory and Policy (New York: Macmillan, 1989)
1999, Agent-Based Computer Simulation of Dichotomous Economic Growth (Kluwer) isbn 0-7923-8688-4
1985, The Rhetoric of Economics (Harvester Press, 1985, esp. ch. 6)
Measuring the CPI, JEP 12(1), Winter 1998
1996, The F Programming Language (Oxford University Press) isbn: 850026-2
, 1982, Rational Expectations and the New Macroeconomics (Oxford: Martin Robertson and Co.)
, 1995, The Money Supply in the economic Process: A Post Keynesian Perspective (Edward Elgar, 1995) isbn 1-85898-043-7 (32 classic articles)
Neurath, Otto Foundations of the Social Sciences (Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press, 1954) Series: International encyclopedia of unified science, vol.II, no.1.
2000, Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (Cambridge) ISBN: 0521773628 Call Number: BD541 .P43 2000
Recent Developments in Macroeconomics Brookfield, VT: Elgar, 1991).
1996, Cointegration for the Applied Economist, (New York: St. Martins Press) isbn 0-312-15809-2
1996, Advanced Macroeconomics (New York: McGraw-Hill) ISBN 0070536678
Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, University of Chicago Press, 1997.
Modeling Bounded Rationality (MIT Press, 1998)
Macroeconomic Theory 2nd Edition (New York: Academic Press, 1981)
Dyanamic Macroeconomic Theory (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1987)
1999, The Conquest of American Inflation (Princeton Univ Press) isbn 0-691-00414-5
1993, Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics (Oxford: Oxford University Press) isbn0-19-828869-7
Macroeconomics (Harcourt Brace Jovanovitch, 1987)
Growth Theory: An Exposition (Oxford University Press, 1987).
, Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy (Mit Press, 1998)
1998, Work and Welfare (Princeton Unive Press).
Economic Dynamics (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press) isbn 47973-8
2000, Challenging Time Series (Edward Elgar) isbn: 1-84064-143-6
, 1969, Readings in the Modern Theory of Economic Growth, (Cambridge: MIT Press)
Monetary policy rules (Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 1999) ISBN: 0226791246
2000, Capital, Accumulation, and Money (Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic) isbn: 0-7923-7781-8
1997, International Macroeconomic Dynamics Second Edition (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997). isbn 0-262-20111-9
2000, Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics Second Edition (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2000) isbn 0-262-20123-2
Macroeconometric Modelling (Elgar, 1994) isbn 1-85278-664-7 (2 vols of classic articles)
Macroeconomic Data: A User's Guide (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 4th edition) (Selected articles at: http://www.rich.frb.org/pubs/macro/)
, 1986, "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica 104, March, 249--73. (Supports link between profits and investment)
William T. Dickens, and George L. Perry, 1996, "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 1996, 1--59. (Read the following comment as well.)
, 1994, "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics 109(2), May, 465--90.
, 2001, “The real-time predictive content of money for output,” Journal of Monetary Economics 48(1), pp.3--24
, 1973, "The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests," AER, March 1973.
1985, "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review 75, March, 117--27.
1975, "A Kaleckian Theory of Income Distribution," Canadian Journal of Economics 8(3), 313--333.
, 2001, “Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 25(1), pp.2-11.
1992, "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review , Sep, 864--888.
1996, "The Overstated CPI-Can It Really Be True?," Challenge, 39, 5 (September-October), pp. 26-33. HC101N533;
1988 "The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off" BPEA 1--65 (1988). Reprinted as ch.6, pp.147--211, of Mankiw and Romer 1991.
Laurence Ball and David Romer, 1990, "Real Rigidities and the Nonneutrality of Money" REStud 57, 183--203 (1990). Reprinted as ch.3, pp.59--86, of Mankiw and Romer 1991.
, 1976, "Rational Expectations and the role of Monetary Policy," JME 2(1), Jan, 1--32.
, 1989, "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits", Journal of Economic Perspectives 3(2), Spring, 37--54.
, 1989, "Interest-Rate Targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics 23(1), Jan. 1989, 3--30. (Feasibility of nominal interest rate targeting and price level restraint under RE.)
, 1983, "A Positive Theory of Money," Journal of Political Economy 91(4), August, pp. 589--610.
, 1992, "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," Review of Economics Studies 59(4), No. 201, Oct, 645--662.
1952, "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, pp. 545--556.
1998, "Is There a Retirement Savings Puzzle?" AER 88(4), Sep 1998, pp.769--
"Rational Expectations and the Non-Neutrality of Systematic Monetary Policy, Review of Economics Studies.
, 1982, "A Charactrization of Erratic Dynamics in the Overlapping Generations Model," \JEDC\ 4, 37--55.
, 1994, "The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development," Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 143--73.
1988, "Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review 78(2), May, 435--39.
1986, "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," \CRCS\ 25, 49--101, Autumn.
1981, "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review 71(1), March, 132--143.
1989, "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review 79(5). (Some stylized empirical support for a Neo--Keynesian AS/AD approach to modeling.)
Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence F. Katz, 1997, "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," JEP 11(1), Winter, 51--72.
, 1997, “Is There A Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?,” AER 87(2), pp.240-3.
1988, "The Challenge of High Unemployment," American Economic Review 78(2), May, 1--15.
, 1990, "A Shred of Evidence on Theories of Wage Stickiness," Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(4), Nov., 1003--1015. (A rare use of surveys: finds notions of "fairness" important in wage policy.)
, "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Political Economy 5(1), Winter 1991, 73--96.
, 1990, "Equilibrium Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics 25(2), March, 189--222.
1980, "The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, March.
"On the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica 6.
and Kunal S. Kamlani, 1997, "The Reasons for Wage Rigidity: Evidence from a Survey of Firms," Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(3), August, 759--789.
Campbell, John Y. and Luis M. Viceira, 1999, "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(2), April, 433--495.
Campbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, July 1990, pp. 265-79.
1985, "Monetary Policy Games and the Role of Private Information," American Economic Review , December.
1994, "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 109(1), Feb, 111--48. (Current income is a major determinant of current consumption.)
1986, "The Rigidity of Prices," American Economic Review 76, Sep., 637--58.
Chari, V. V., 1999, "Nobel Laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.: Architect of Modern Macroeconomics," Federal Reserve Board of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 23(2), Spring 1999. (See how an acolyte speaks of a saint, and never forget how many economists belong to this church.)
, "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Financially Disaggregated Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 10, August 1978, pp. 322--336 (also Aoki's 1980 comment, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 12)
, 1998, “What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy,” Journal Of Monetary Economics 41(2), pp.277--300
1988, "How Big is the Random Walk in GNP?" Journal of Political Economy 96(5), October, 893--920. (Shows that although "GNP growth is positively autocorrelated at short lags, there are many small small negative autocorrelations at long lags." This explains why Nelson & Plosser (JME 1982) and Campbell and Mankiw (QJE 102, 1987) find a random walk in GNP, yet suggests that GNP is largely trend reverting!)
1999, "A Neoclassical Model of the Phillips Curve Relation," Journal Of Monetary Economics (44)2 pp. 165-193.
, 1985, "Atheoretical Macroeconomics: A Critique," Journal of Monetary Economics 16(3), November, pp. 283--308 (especially parts 4 and 5, and see the comments by N.G. Mankiw in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, pp. 139--145.)
S. F. LeRoy, and N. Ramon, 1984, "Econometric Policy Evaluation: Note," American Economic Review 74, 467--70. (An extension of the Lucas critique; shows that possibility of regime changes vitiates standard RE econometrics.)
, 1981, "Identification and the Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review 71, Dec 1981, 825-844. (Don't worry excessively about the technical details. The point is that apparently reasonable variations in the specification of an empirical money demand function lead to divergent estimates of the interest elasticity.)
, 1986, "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government, and the Benefits of the Constitution," Economic Inquiry24, July, 367--388.
1983, "The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth," QJE 98, 201--13.
De Long, J. Bradford, "Crosscountry variations in national economic growth rates: the role of 'technology'," in Jeffery Fuhrer and Jane Sneddon Little (eds.) Technology and growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, 1997.
1965, "National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model," American Economic Review 55(5), Dec, 1126--1150.
, 2000, “Is Money Useful in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 86(4), pp.23--48
1979, "The Optimal Inflation Tax Revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics 5, 231--248.
1985, "A General Measure of Inflation Tax Revenues," Economics Letters 17, 327--330.
Drazen, A., 1985, "Tight Money and Inflation: Further Results," Journal of Monetary Economics 15(1), January.
1976, "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 84, 1161--76.
, 2000, “Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Panel Data,” American Economic Review 90(3), pp.391--406
1970, "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance 25, May.
1926, "A Statistical Relationship between Unemployment and Price Changes," International Labour Review 13(6), 785--792; as reprinted in Journal of Political Economy as "I Discovered the Phillips Curve."
"1947, 1963, and 1985," in Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, R. Dornbusch et al. (eds) (Cambridge, MA: MIT PRess, 1987)
1977, "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy 85, February, 191--205.
1980, "Dynamic Inconsistency, Cooperation, and the Benevolent Dissembling Government," \JEDC\ (February )
1988, "Recent Developments in Macroeconomics," Economic Journal 98, June, 294--339.
1987, "Aggregation Problem," in The New Palgrave, A Dictionary of Economics, (NY: Stockton Press) 53--5.
1993, "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," Review of Economics Studies 60(3), no.204, July.
1978, "Crowding Out or Crowding In: Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity III, pp. 593--641 (don't skip the comments and discussion).
1977, "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, June, pp. 451--477.
1971, "Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy 79, (July/August ): 846--56.
1968, "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review 58, March, 1--17. (The most cited article on the natural rate.)
"A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability," American Economic Review 38, 1948.
Froyen, Richard T. and Roger N. Waud, "Further International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs" American Economic Review, Vol. 70, No. 3. (Jun., 1980), pp. 409-421.
, 2000, “Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models,” American Economic Review 90(3), pp.367--90 (Supports habit formation, but see Dynan (2000 AER).)
, 1995, “Inflation Persistence,” QJE 110(1), pp.127-60.
, 1987, "Is the Distinction between Anticipated and Unanticipated Money Growth Relevant in Explaining Aggregate Output?" American Economic Review 77(4), Sep, 693--703. (It appears not.)
, 1992, "How Well Does the IS--LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2), May, 709--738. (Quite well! But see Sarte 1997 FRBEQ.)
1996, "Empirical Estimates of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply and Demand Curves for the Post-War U.S. Economy," SEJ 62(4) pp. 856--72 (April).
"Interest Rate Smoothing and Price Level Trend-% Stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics 19, May 1987, 335--48.
1994, "Putting Heterodox Macro to the Test: Comparing Post-Keynesian, Marxist, and Social Structuralist Macroeconometric Models of the Post-War U.S. Economy," in Mark A. Glick (ed), Competition, Technology and Money: Classical and Post-Keynesian Perspectives (Aldershot: Edward Elgar) p. 143--185.
Gordon, Robert J., "Unemployment and Potential Output in the 1980s", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2, 1984), 537-68.
1990, "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?" JEL 28, 1115--1171.
1988, 1988, "The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process," American Economic Review 78, May, 276-83. (Disputes the relevance of rigid markup pricing models: wage \& price processes independent.)
1985, "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica 53, 995--1045.
1998, "Expectations and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica 66(4), 741--81
1944, "The Probability Approach in Econometrics," Econometrica 12 (Supplement).
1988, "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy 96(5), Oct, p. 921--47. (Finds p>MC in many industries.)
1978, "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle--Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy 86(6). (Argues Ct-1 a sufficient statistic for C.)
Business Cycles: The Nature and Causes of Economic Fluctuations (New York: Praeger, 1990). Chapters 10--12 (especially the survey on the real wage in chapter 12).
"Malthus to Solow," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 257, January 1999.
, 1982, "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica 50(5), 1269--86, Sep. [This paper was awarded the Frisch medal, and is generally considered an outstanding example of the search for "deep" parameters.]
, 1983, "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Return," Journal of Political Economy 91 (2), 249--65, March.
, Towards a Dynamic Economics, MacMillan, London, 1948, pp. 63--100.
, "Mr. Keynes and Traditional Theory", 1937, Econometrica
1982, "Tobin's} Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation, E 50(1), jan, 213--24.
1935, "A Suggestion for Simplifying the Theory of Money," Economica 2, February, pp. 1--19. (in The Economics of John Hicks) (perhaps the earliest suggestion that money can be return dominated because of the cost of moving in and out of other assets, a suggestion followed up by Baumol and by Tobin)
1937, "Mr. Keynes and the `Classics'; A suggested Interpretation," Econometrica 5, April (often considered the original development of the IS--LM apparatus, ignoring Harrod (1937).). Reprinted in Hicks 19??.
, 2001, “Is the Large U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable?” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter, p.5-23
1994, "Econometrics as Observation: The Lucas Critique and the Nature of Econometric Inference," The J. of Economic Methodology 1:1, June, 65--80.
1981, "Activist Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy.
1992, "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy 100(4), August, 776--800.
1996, "The Role of Countercyclical Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy 104(4), August, 704--723.
1992, "Why is Production More Volatile Than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory--Holding," Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2), May, 481--510.
1935, "A Theory of the Business Cycle," Review of Economics Studies 36, 77--97.
1971. "Political Aspects of Full Employment," in Kalecki, Selected Essays On The Dynamics Of The Capitalist Economy, (CUP: Cambridge, pp. 138-145).
1937, "The General Theory of Employment," Quarterly Journal of Economics Feb..
General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Chapters 1, 2, 18, 32. Also, ch.12 on uncertainty \& expectations.)
1992, "Whom or What Does the Representative Agent Represent?" JEP 6, 117--36.
1993, "Rethinking the IS in IS-LM," Economic Review of the Dallas Fed, 3rd quarter for part 1, 4th quarter for part 2.
1947, "Measurement Without Theory," Review of Economics and Statistics 29, Aug, 161--172.
"Koopmans on the Choice of Variables to be Studied and of Methods of Measurement: A Reply," Review of Economics and Statistics 31:2, May 1949, 86--91.
, 1984, "Cross-Regime Evidence of Macroeconomic Rationality," Journal of Political Economy 92, October, 875--908.
1994, "The Myth of Asia's Miracle" Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec, 62--78.
, 1977, "Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, June, pp. 473--492.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica 50, 1345--1370.
1990, "Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Spring, 3--18.
, Inflation and Unemployment: A Layperson's Guide to the Phillips Curve FRBR Economic Quarterly, Summer 2007 Vol. 93 No. 3
"Costly Portfolio Adjustment and the Short-run Demand for Money," Economic Inquiry 28, July 1990, 466-487. (Don't bother with the algebra. Get the point that even if individuals are subject to costs of portfolio adjustment this need not show up in the aggregate money demand function.)
1994, "The Sources of the Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries" J. of the Japanese and Intl Economies.
1979, "Expectations and Output-Inflation Tradeoffs in a Fixed-Exchange-Rate Economy, Journal of Political Economy 87, December, " 1285--1306.
1983, "What was the Matter with IS-LM?" In Modern Macroeconomic Theory, ed. D. Fitoussi, Barnes and Noble Books, New Jersey, pp. 64--92.
Mark Bergen, Shantanu Dutta, and Robert Venable, "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: Direct Evidence from Large U.S. Supermarket Chains," Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(3), August, 792--825.
, 1993, "Making a Miracle," Econometrica 61(2), pp. 251--272.
, 1969, "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review 59, pp. 342--350.
, 1976, "Econometric Policy Evaluations: A Critique," (reprinted in his Studies in Business-Cycle Theory) (A classic statement of the Lucas critique.)
, 1972, "Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis," in The Econometrics of Price Determination, O. Eckstein, ed. (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1972). (Have a look at the other articles as well.)
, 1973, "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Trade-offs," American Economic Review 63, pp. 324--334.
, 1986, "Principles of Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics 17(1), January, pp. 117--134.
, 1986, "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory", Journal of Business 59 (Supplement), October, pp.S400--S425. Reprinted as pp.217--42 of Hogarth and Reder 1987.
, 1980, "Rules, Discretion and the Role of the Economic Advisor," in Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, S. Fischer, ed., 1980, and Studies in Business Cycle Theory, Lucas, ed. 1981.
, 1996, "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy 104(4), August, 661--682.
, 1978, "After Keynesian Macroeconomics," in: After the Phillips Curve (Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, ) as reprinted in: R.E. Lucas and T.J. Sargent, eds., Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1981)
D. Romer, and D. Weil, 1992, "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2), May, 407--438.
, 2000, “The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment,” {Discussion Paper} 1905(1905)
, 1988, "Imperfect Competition and the Keynesian Cross" Economics Letters 26 pp. 7--14 (1988). Reprinted as ch.14, pp.377--95, of Mankiw and Romer 1991.
1981, "Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics 8, 319--29.
1986, "Some Issues Concerning Interest Rate Pegging, Price Level Determinacy, and the Real Bills Doctrine," Journal of Monetary Economics 17, Jan 1986, 135--160.
1984, "A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model," \CanJE, February, pp. 138--145. (Also see Lucas, R.E., Expectations and the Neutrality of Money, JET 4, April 1972, 103-24 and Gale ch. 2).
1983, "On Non--Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Monetary Economics (11), : 139--168.
, 1987, "Demand for Money: Theoretical Studies," in Eatwell et al. (eds), The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, (NY: WW Norton).
, 2004, “A Retrospective on Friedman's Theory of Permanent Income,” Economic Journal 114, pp.293-306.
Edward, "The Equity Premium: A Puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics 15(2), 142--65.
1951, "Wealth, Savings, and the Rate of Interest," Journal of Political Economy 59(2), pp. 93--116.
, 1954, "Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of the Cross Section Data," in Post-Keynesian Economics ed. K. Kurihara, (New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1954).
"Trade Inventories and (S,s)," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(4), Nov 1991, 1267--1286.
1963, "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy \ 71, June, 280--83.
1986, "On the Non-existence of a Natural Rate of Unemployment and Kaleckian Micro Underpinnings to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 8(3), Spring, 447--462.
"Neoclassical vs. Evolutionary Theories of Economic Growth: Critique and Prospectus," The Economic Journal, Vol. 84, No. 336. (Dec., 1974), pp. 886--905.
1984, "Some Issues Surrounding the Reduction of Macroeconomics to Microeconomics," The Philosophy of Science 51, 573--594.
Charles I. (1982).
"Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series,"
Journal
of Monetary Economics, 10, pp.139-162.
"Metzler, Wealth, and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature 16,March 1978, pp. 84--116.
"Price Flexibility and Full Employment," American Economic Review 38, 1948.
, 1997, “The Business Cycle and Chain-Weighted GDP: Has Our Perspective Changed?,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 79(5), pp.39-49.
1999, "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," QJE 114(4), Nov, 1399--1436.
1958, "The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861--1957," Economica 22(100), November, 1958, 283--99.
, 1967, "Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time," Economica 34(135), August, 254--81.
, 1977, "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Ratonal Expectaitons, Journal of Political Economy 85, 163--90.
1943, "The Classical Stationary State," Economic Journal 53, pp. 343--351.
1943, "Economic Progress in a Stable Environment," Economica.
1968, "Economic Growth in the USSR" Scientific American, December 1968.
, 1993, “Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates” REStat 75(2), p.331-6
1977, "Should Control Theory be used for Economic Stabilization?," JME, Supplement 7.
1945, "The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp," Economica 12, Nov., 189--201.
, 1928, “A Mathematical Theory of Saving,” Economic Journal 38(152), pp.543--59
, 2003, “Assessing Ricardian Equivalence,” Journal of Economic Surveys 17(1), pp.55-78.
1984, "How Consistent was Keynes' Theory of Effective Demand?" Economic Inquiry 22, 45--55.
, 1995, “New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve,” JMCB 27(4), pp.975-84.
1999, "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," JIE 49(2), 269--288.
1985, "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," Quarterly Journal of Economics 100(4), Nov, 1169--90.
, 1991, "The Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series, 1889--1984," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(1), Feb, 1-32.
1966, "Unemployment in a Theory of Growth," International Economic Review7, 260--282.
, "Fundamental sources of longrun growth," American Economic Review, May 1997, 87(2), 184188.
SalaIMartin,Xavier, "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, July 1996, 106, 101936.
1960, "Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy," AER 50(2), May, 177--94. (Available on JSTOR)
1971, "A Note on the `Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 3, August, 721--25.
1976, "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy 84, April, 207--37.
1977, "The Demand fo Money During Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review48, Feb., 49--73.
, 1976, "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics 2, pp. 169--183.
, 1975, "Rational Expectations,the Optimal Monetary Instrument and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy 83, pp. 241--57. (also see Gale, Money in Eq., Ch. 1, part II)
Sarte, P. G., 1997, "On the Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions", FRBREQ 83(3), 45--67.
Shea, John. "Union Conracts and the Life-Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," American Economic Review, March 1995, pp. 186 - 200.
, 1972, "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review 62, Sep, 540--52.
, 1980, "Macroeconomics and Reality", Econometrica 48, 1--47. (Skip the technical discussion and focus on general points and results.)
, 1980, "A Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review 70, May, 250--257.
, 1982, "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," BPEA 1, 107--52. (Argues that the Lucas critique is of little practical relevance: policy rule changes are rare and final form coefficient show little drift. This may be due to stable implicit rules governing policy that is generally "discretionary".)
, 1986, "Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Winter, 2--16.
, 1998, "Econometric Implications of the Government Budget Constraint", Journal of Econometrics 83(1--2)
"Rules Versus Authorities in Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, February.
Barsky, R., and Parker, J., "Measuring the Cyclicity of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 109(1), 1--26.
1956, "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, February, pp.65--94.
1957, "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function," Review of Economics and Statistics 39(3), 312--20.
Solow, R.M., 1962, "Technical Progress, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review 52.
"The NAIRU, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy" Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 1997, 33--49.
"How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?", in Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer (eds), Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, University of Chicago Press, 1997.
1990, "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review 80(3), June, 465--479. (Herd behavior can be rational: when informed and uninformed managers face reputational considerations, correlated behavior is likely to be perceived as informed.)
1966, "Money and Capacity Growth," Journal of Political Economy 74, Oct., 451--465.
1969, "`Neoclassical' and `Keynes--Wicksell' Monetary American Economic Review 70(1), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 1, May, 153--171.
Stutzer, "Time Inconsistency of Optimal Plans: An Elementary Primer," Minneapolis Federal Research Report
1988, "Should Keynesian Economics Dispense with the Phillips Curve?," in Rod Cross (ed.), Unemployment, Hysteresis and the Natural Rate Hypothesis, Basil Blackwell: Oxford, pp.11--25.
, 1989, "Real Wages, Employment, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Political Economy 97(3), June, p.706--720. (Argues real US wages countercyclical during aggregate demand shocks but procyclical during aggregate supply shocks, reconciling conflicts in earlier works.)
Symposium: "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 1997.
1999 "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature 37 (March 1999), pp. 112--156.
, 1999, “The Young Person's Guide to Writing Economic Theory,” JEL 37, pp.157-183.
1955, " A Dynamic Aggregative Model," Journal of Political Economy 63, April, pp. 105--115.
1956, "The Interest-Elasticity of the Transactions Demand for Cash," Review of Economics and Statistics, September, pp. 241--247.
1993, "Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View," J. Econ. Perspectives 7(1), Winter, 45--65. (Also see the other articles in the symposium, esp. King's.)
"Monetary Targeting and Price Level Non-Trend- Stationarity," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 21(2), May 1989.
1949, "Koopmans of the Choice of Variables to be Studied and of Methods of Measurement," Review of Economics and Statistics 31:2, May, 77--86.
1979, "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 87(3), 639--647.
1963, "The Microfoundations of the Social Investment Function," Journal of Political Economy 71, 441--56, October.
"Rational Expectations and Monetary Policy in a Simple Macroeconomic Model," Quarterly Journal of Economics.
, 2000, “The Frequency and Costs of Individual Price Adjustment,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 86(4), pp.1--22
1992, "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore" NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992 (MIT Press).
1994, "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A Contrarian View" European Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1994.
1995, "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience", Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(3), Aug 1995.
1998, " Understanding Complex Social Dynamics: A Plea For Cellular Automata Based Modelling" Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 1, no. 3,
"The Challenge of High Unemployment," American Economic Review 78(2), May 1988, 1--15.
P. (1992).
"In Defense of Explanatory Eucemenism,"
Economics and Philosophy,
8, pp. 1-21.
(Why the causal supervention of macro phenomena on micro underpinnings does not imply explanatory fundamentalism.)
, "Atheoretical Macroeconomics: A Critique,"
Journal of Monetary Economics 16(3), November 1985, pp. 283--308 (especially parts 4 and 5, and see the comments by N.G. Mankiw in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, pp. 139- 145.)
, 1976, "Recent Developments in Monetary Theory,"
Journal of Monetary Economics 2, April 1976, 133--167. (Barro, ch. 1.)
1978, "Toward an Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, pp. 810--832.
, "A Shred of Evidence on Theories of Wage Stickiness," Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(4), Nov. 1990, 1003--1015. (A rare use of surveys: finds notions of "fairness" important in wage policy.)
McCallum 1
, "On Allocating the Variance of Output to Permanent and Transitory Components," Economics Letters 30, October 1989, 323--326.
1991, "The Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series, 1889--1984," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(1), Feb, 1-32.
1988, "Short-Run Models and Long-Run Forecasts: A Note on the Permanence of Output Fluctuations, " Quarterly Journal of Economics 103(2), 415--24. (Supports mean reversion, shows lagged autocorrelations of Dy are jointly significant.)
1986, "The Frequency of Price Adjustment: A Study of the Newsstand Prices of Magazines," J.Econometrics 31, 255--274.
1988, "Sticky Prices: New Evidence from Retail Catalogs," unpublished paper, MIT.
, "The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregate Price Data," JPE 100, 1992, 349--89.
1982, "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy 90, 1187--1211.
1985, "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature 23(2), June, pp. 524--580.
1989, "The Production-Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," Journal of Monetary Economics 24(3), Nov. (Finds significant effects of expected future sales on current output.)
1989, "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review 79(5),. (Some stylized empirical support for a Neo-Keynesian AS/AD approach to modeling.)
1990, Business Cycles: The Nature and Causes of Economic Fluctuations (New York: Praeger, ). Chapters 10--12 (especially the survey on the real wage in chapter 12).
\cbflg{Asset Demand: Theory and Evidence}
"Money is abstract... money is the future tense. It can be an evening in the suburbs, or music by Brahms; it can be maps, or chess, or coffee; it can be the words of Epictetus teaching us to despise gold; it is a Proteus more versatile than the one on the isle of Pharos. It is unforeseeable time, Bergsonian time... a coin symbolizes man's free will." Borges, Jorge, Labyrinths, p.159.
1977, "Why Money?", JMCB 9, Feb 19, pp. 133--41. (A discussion of the medium of exchange role.)
et al., "The Uses of Cash and Transaction Accounts by American Families," Fed.Res.Bull. 72, Feb. 1986, 87--108.
, "The Uses of Money: Money in the Theory of an Exchange Economy," American Economic Review, December 1971, pp. 784--805. (A bit more theoretical discussion of the medium of exchange role of money.)
, 2003, “Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development,” JME 50, pp.3-39.
1949, Primitive Money in it Ethnological, Historical, and Economic Aspects (London: Eyre and Spottiswwode)
1969, "More on an Empirical Definition of Money," American Economic Review, March.
1974, Primitive Money (Reading, MA: Addison- Wesley, ). (An anthropological view of money.)
1892, "On the Origin of Money, Economic Journal 2, 239- 255.
"The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp," Economica 12, Nov. 1945, 189--201.
"Money is What Money Does: Monetary Aggregation and the Equation of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy 93(1), February 1985 175--204 (suggests a method for constructing index numbers for transactions balances and velocity). (Also see Barnett Journal of Political Economy 92(6) 1984 and J. Econometrics Sep 1980, as well as Chetty American Economic Review 59 June 1969. Koot J. Finance Sep. 1975 also has some relevance.
"Competitive Payments Systems and the Unit of Account," American Economic Review, September 1984, pp. 699--712.
"A Legal Restrictions Theory of the Demand for 'Money' and the Role of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 7, Winter 1983, pp. 1--7.
, "Has Government Any Role in Money?" Journal of Monetary Economics 17(1), January 1986, pp. 37--62.
"Costly Portfolio Adjustment and the Short-run Demand for Money," Economic Inquiry 28, July 1990, 466--487. (Don't bother with the algebra. Get the point that even if individuals are subject to costs of portfolio adjustment this need not show up in the aggregate money demand function.)
The Demand for Money.
Sargent I.2, IV.4, IV.5, VII
Money, Interest, and Prices Chapters 5--8, Mathematical Appendix 2.
1986, " A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model," Quarterly Journal of Economics 101(4), November.
William J. Baumol, "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, 1952, pp. 545--556.
1986, "A Dynamic Baumol-Tobin Model of Money Demand," RE Stud 53(3), July.
"The Quantity Theory of Money--A Restatement," in M. Friedman, ed., Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1956.
1959, "The Demand for Money--Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," Journal of Political Economy, June, pp. 327--351.
, "A Model of Demand for Money by Firms," Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1966. (An inventory theoretic model under uncertainty, difficult.)
Don Patinkin, "The Chicago Tradition, 1969, The Quantity Theory, and Friedman," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February, pp. 46--70.
1956, "The Interest-Elasticity of the Transactions Demand for Cash," Review of Economics and Statistics, September, pp. 241--247.
1961, "Money, Capital, and Other Stores of Value," American Economic Review, May.
"Inflation, Hedging, and the Demand for Money," American Economic Review, Dec. 1978, 821- 33.
, "Identification and the Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review 71, Dec 1981, 825--844. (Don't worry about the technical details. The point is that apparently reasonable variations in the specification of an empirical money demand function lead to divergent estimates of the interest elasticity.)
N., 1991, "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," American Economic Review 81(1), March 1991.
, "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review 81(1), March 1991.
1966, "On the Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, April.
Jared Enzler, Lewis Johnson and John Paulus, "Some Problems of Money Demand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1976, pp. 261--280.
1980, "The Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money Revisited," JMCB, February.
Stephen M. Goldfeld, "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 3:1973, pp. 577- 638.
"The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 3:1976, pp. 683- 739.
1982, "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," JEL 20, Sep, 993--1023.
"Money Demand Predictability," JMCB 17, Nov 1985, 611--41. (interest ratchet found, attributed to induced financial innovation)
"Monetary and Fiscal Actions: A Test of Their Relative Importance in Economic Stabilization," Review of the St. Louis Fed, Nov. 1968, 11.24.
1983, "A Money Demand Equation for Brazil," JDE 12, 183--93. (Argues i more relevant than p for money demand, even in high inflation Brazil.)
"A Note on Uncertainty and Indifference Curves," RE Stud. 36, January 1969, pp. 1--4.
1969, "Capital Risk, Consumption, and Portfolio Choices," Econometrica (37), October : 586--599 (The basics of the savings/portfolio-choice problem.
"The Theory of Portfolio Selection," Chapter 1 in F. Hahn and F. Brechling, eds., The Theory of Interest Rates, MacMillan, 1965.
1958, "Liquidity Preference, as Behavior Toward Risk," Review of Economic Studies, February, pp. 65--86.
1944, "Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money," Econometrica.
Feldstein, M. "Mean-Variance Analysis in the Theory of Liquidity Preference and Portfolio Selection," REStud., 1969.
McCallum 4
A Primer on the Fed (Richmond, Va.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 1988)
, "Instrument Choice for Money Stock Control with Contemporaneous and Lagged Reserve Requirements," JMCB 15, Feb. 1983, 96- 101.
Optimal Quantity of Money "Resolving Differences over the Optimal Quantity of Money," JMCB 25(4), Nov 1993, 801--811.
McCallum 5, 6
1948, "Price Flexibility and Full Employment," American Economic Review 38,.
Scarth 5
, "A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations," JEL, March 1982.
1979, "Rational Expectations and Economic Thought," JEL, December.
1978, "The Future and Present in Economic Life," Economic Inquiry 16, April, pp. 157--169 (important doubts about RE modeling).
1986, "Monetary Mystique: Secrecy and Central Banking," Journal of Monetary Economics 17(1), January, pp. 63--92.
Minford and Peel, Chapter 1.
1983, Rational Expectations, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,. (Good intuition and historical perspective).
Attfield, Ch. 2,3
"The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, March 1980.
1985, The Rhetoric of Economics, Harvester Press, ch. 6.
McCallum 7, 8.1--8.3 and Appendix
Harris 18.1--18.3 (growth and money), 19 "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," E 59(6), Nov 1991, 1617--32. (Constant M compatible with unstable P in Brock model.)
\cbflg{Inflationary Finance}
McCallum 6.7
1973, "Inflation in the Theory of Public Finance," Swedish Journal of Economics 75,. (The first modern treatment of optimal seigniorage as optimal tax spreading.)
1965, "Money and Economic Growth," Econometrica 33, 671--684. (LR effects of inflation on capital stock: the Mundell-Tobin effect.)
"Seigniorage, Inflation, and Reputation," Journal of Monetary Economics 18(1), July 1986, 21--32.
1976, "Three-and-a-Half Million U. S. Employees Have Been Mislaid: Or, an Explanation of Unemployment, 1934-1941," Journal of Political Economy 84(1) (February), pp. 1-16.
1985, "Some Pleasant Monetarist Arithmetic,"Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Quarterly Review, Winter, pp. 32--37.
1993, "Resolving Differences over the Optimal Quantity of Money," JMCB 25(4), Nov, 801--811.
Marty, Alvin L. "Growth and the Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance." Journal of Political Economy 75 (February 1967), pp. 71--76.
Marty, Alvin L. "A Note on the Welfare Cost of Money Creation," Journal of Monetary Economics 2, Jan 1976, 121--24.
1965, Stability, and Inflationary Finance," Journal of Political Economy 73 (April ): 97--109. (The origin of the Mundell-Tobin effect.)
Bailey, Martin J. "The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance," Journal of Political Economy 73 (April 1956): 93--110.
Friedman, Milton. "Government Revenue from Inflation, 1971, " Journal of Political Economy 79, (July/August ): 846--56.
"Discussion of the Inflationary Gap." Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University Chicago Press, 1953.
, 1970, "Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money," JEP 78 (November/December ): 1228--63.
"Inflationary Finance and Growth." Journal of Political Economy 85(6), 1977, 1295--1307.
1969, The Optimum Quality of Money and Other Essays, (Chicago: Adline, ).
1972, "Inflationary Finance and the Welfare Cost of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy (October ): 978--1001.
"The Honest Government's Guide to the Creation of Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy 82 (May/June, 1974): 598--606.
1986, Journal of Monetary Economics 17(2), March, 239--49.
"The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: I." International Economic Review 18 (February, 1977).
"The Ends of Four Big Inflations," in Rational Expectations and Inflation, Harper and Row, 1986.
1988, 1989, European Economic Review 33, March, 557--563. (An excellent concise review of work on the policy issues relevant to the optimal seigniorage rate.)
Drazen 1979 JME, 1985 EL, 1985 JME
"Government Revenue from Canadian Journal of Economics
"Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary?" Journal of Political Economy 92(1), Feb 1984, 123--135.
"Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," JMCB 21(2), May 1989, 149--57.
1971, "More on the Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance," JMCB 3, Nov, 850--60. (extends and corrects Bailey)
1987, "The Optimal Collection of Seigniorage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics 20, 327--41.
\cbflg{Multi-Asset Models}
1983, "Why Have Short-Term Interest Rates Been So High?" BPEA I, p.553--578. (addition of a simple term structure equation to the IS-LM framework, increased government expenditure financed by ST debt can cause crowding in.)
1972, "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, Sep/Oct, 951--977.
, 1988, "Money and Credit in the Monetary Transmission Process," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 78, May, 446--51.
1969, "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking February, pp. 15--29.
, "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Financially Disaggregated Macroeconomic Model," JMCB 10, August 1978, pp. 322--336 (also Aoki's 1980 comment, JMCB 12)
1978, "Crowding Out or Crowding In: Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficit," Brookings Papers III, pp. 593--641 (don't skip the comments and discussion).
1989, "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy," JMCB 21(3), August, 321--47.
\cbflg{The Neoclassical Synthesis}
McCallum 5.7--5.8
Scarth 1,2,3,4
National Income and the Price Level, Chapters 2, 3.
Sargent Ch. 1,2
Money, Interest and Price (2nd ed), ch. 1--4, 8--12.
"Money and Wealth," JEL, Dec. 1969. 1140- 60.
1980, "Metzler on Classical Interest Theory," American Economic Review 70(1), March, pp. 135--148.
Harris, Ch. 21.2
Gale, Ch. 1., part I
, "Monetary and Value Theory: a Critique of Lange and Patinkin," RE Stud 26, 1--22. (Classical results rescued from Patinkins' analysis by examining "long run" redistributions.)
Sargent 3, 15.2
\cbflg{Money in Post-Keynesian Models of Growth}
Interest and Prices, 1898, trans. R.F. Kahn, London: Macmillan, 1936.
1911, Lectures on Political Economy II, Money, ed. Lionel Robbins (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1934)
1966, "Unemployment in a Theory of Growth," International Economic Review 7(3), 260--282.
1969, "Real and Monetary Factory in the Business Cycle," JMCB May, 138--52.
"Effective Demand in the Long Run," in Models of Economic Growth, ed J.A. Mirrlees and N.H. Stern (NY: John Wiley, 1973), p.25--47.
" The Rose-Wicksell Model: Inside Money, Stability, and Stabilization Policies," JMACRO, 1981.
1966, "Money and Capacity Growth," Journal of Political Economy 74, Oct., 451--465.
1969, "`Neoclassical' and `Keynes- Wicksell' Monetary Growth Models," JMCB 1, May, 153- 171.
1958, "Relations between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861--1957," Economica,.
"The Relationship Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the U.K. 1862--1957: A Further Analysis," Economica 27, February 1960, 1--31.
, 1973, “Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy,” bpea 2
,
1962,
"Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance,"
Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association.
(Origin of "Okun's Law".)
reprinted with slight changes in
Okun, Arthur M., 1970,
The Political Economy of Prosperity (Washington DC: Brookings, 1970).
"Comments," in Guidelines, Informal Controls and the Market Place, G.P. Shultz and R.Z. Aliber, eds. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1966). (Great intuition for the natural rate criticism of the Phillips curve.)
1968, "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review 58, March, 1--17. (The most cited article on the natural rate.)
1977, "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, June, pp. 451--477.
1992, "Wage-Price Flexibility, Market Power, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages, 1959--1980," Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(4), Nov, 1437--1449.
1967, "Phillips, Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time," Economica 34, August, 254--81.
1972, Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory, Norton, NY,.
Harris, Ch. 21.3
1976, "Recent Developments in the Theory of Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, pp. 185--219 (an excellent survey with extensive references).
Branson, Chapter 7.
Attfield, Ch. 1.
"Inflation: A Survey," Economic Journal, Dec.1975, 741--809.
, "The Inflation Unemployment Trade-Off: A Critique of the Literature," JEL, June 1978, pp. 499--544.
Sargent Ch. 5.
"The Equilibrium Approach to Business Cycles," (Barro Ch. 2)
, "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review 59, 1969, pp. 342--350.
1984, "A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, February, pp. 138--145. (Also see Lucas, R.E., Expectations and the Neutrality of Money, JET 4, April 1972, 103--24 and Gale 2).
King, Robert G. "Monetary Information and Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Monetary Economics 7, March 1981, 195--206. (Shows that the availability of money supply data vitiates Lucas' 1972 misperceptions hypothesis)
1981, "A Re-examination of Natural Rate Theory," American Economic Review 71(5), December, pp. 946--959. (Qualifies Lucas' 1972 neutrality results)
1972, "Wage Adjustment, Productivity, and Price Change Expectations," REStuud, Jan, 61--72. (Adds productivity term.)
"A Productivity Theory of Wage Levels--An Alternative to the Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Studies, October 1967, 333--60.
"Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis," in The Econometrics of Price Determination, O. Eckstein, ed. (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1972). (Have a look at the other articles as well.)
Some International Evidence on Output- Inflation Trade-offs," American Economic Review 63, 1973, pp. 324--334.
Porter, Richard, and Small, David, "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run," American Economic Review, September 1991, 841--858.
, "Real Wages, Employment, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Political Economy 97(3), June 1989, p.706--720. (Argues real US wages countercyclical during aggregate demand shocks but procyclical during aggregate supply shocks, reconciling conflicts in earlier works.)
1991, "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process," American Economic Review September, 931--937.
"1947, 1963, and 1985," in Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, in R. Dornbusch et al (eds) (Cambridge, MA: MIT PRess, 1987)
"How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2), May 1992, 709--738.
1990, "Unexpected INflation, Real Wages, and Employment Determination in Union Contracts," American Economic Review 80(4), September. (Supportive test of Fischer-Gray story.)
, "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers, April 1979, pp. 13--72.
1979, "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 69, May, 108--12. (But accelerating inflation can maintain deviations from natural rate.)
"Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts, Journal of Political Economy 88, Feb. 1980,1--23.
1977, "Long Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, February, pp. 191- 205.
1976, "Wage Indexation: A Macroeconomic Approach," Journal of Monetary Economics 2, April.
1977, "Long Term Contracting, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics 3, July, pp. 305--316 (Barro, Ch. 9) (illustrates conflict b/ rigid wage models and efficient bargaining)
1975, "The Rigidity of Wages and the Persistence of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, pp. 301--379.
1979, "A Theory of the Natural Unemployment Rate and the Duration of Unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, pp. 153-169
Attfield, Ch.4
"Some Recent Developments in Labor Economics and Their Implications for Macroeconomics," JMCB 20(3) pt.2, August 1988, 507--522.
Minford and Peel, Chapters 4, 5, 6, 9, 10.
, "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Rational Expectations--A Critique of Some Recent Developments," Oxford Economic Papers 32, 1980, pp. 71- 81.
, "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Macroeconomic Annual, 1986, pp. 15--78. (If wages are determined by firms and current workers/insiders, current unemployment persists).
1971, "The 'Natural Rate' Controversy and Economic Theory," in Inflation and the Canadian Experience, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, (Hysteresis due to affect of unemployment on human capital).
"On Permanent Effects of Transitory Phenomena in Simple Growth Models." Economics Letters 3,
"Understanding Business Cycles," (in his Studies in Business-Cycle Theory and in Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy eds. K. Brunner and Allan Meltzer, North-Holland Pub. Co., Amsterdam, 1977, pp. 7--29.
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking November 1980, esp. the articles by Lucas, McCallum, and Tobin.
Sargent, Ch. 10, 16
Scarth 6.4 (non-uniqueness problems)
Sargent, Ch. 9
Attfield, ch. 3,4
Minford and Peel, Chapters 2, 3, 7.
1961, "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements," Econometrica, pp. 315--335. (in Lucas & Sargent vol.I)
, "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrics, 1980.
1979, "Background and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations, AER 69, pp. 114--118.
1977, "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica 45, pp. 1377--1385.
1974, "Uniqueness of the Price Level in Monetary Growth Models with Rational Expectations," JET 7, pp. 53--65.
R. Flood, and P. Garber, "On the Equivalence of Solutions in Rational Expectations Models," JEDC 5 (1983): 311--321.
"Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy 90, August 1982, pp. 777--793. (Finds periods of disparate industry employment growth rates associated with high unemployment, suggesting structural shifts caused high 1970s US unemployment.)
1990, and Robert Moffitt, "An Estimate of a Sectoral Model of Labor Mobility," Journal of Political Economy 98(4), Aug, 827--852. (Provides evidence that job mismatch more important that sectoral shocks in explaining labor mobility.)
Attfield, ch. 6--9.
1983, A Rational Expectations Approach to Econometrics, University of Chicago Press,. (Provides basic tools, rejects neutrality of anticipated changes).
1973, "Some International Evidence on Output- Inflation Tradeoffs," AER 63, June : 326--334.
1983, "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Monetary Economics (11), : 139--168.
1979, "On the Observational Inequivalence of the Classical and Keynesian Models," Journal of Political Economy, April.
1978, "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules Under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy 86, December : 1009--1044.
1976, "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica 44, Jan, 43--52.
1976, "A Classical Macroeconomic Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy,.
"Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, pp. 1267--1286.
, "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the U.S.," AER 67, March 1977: 101--115.
1984, "Interpreting the Statistical Failures of Some Rational Expectations Models," AER, May, pp. 188--193.
, "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy 97(6), Dec. 1989.
McCallum 11.2
1979, "The Current State of the Policy Ineffectiveness Debate," AER 69, May : 240--245.
, "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics 2, 1976 pp. 169- 183.
, "Rational Expectations,the Optimal Monetary Instrument and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy 83, 1975, pp. 241--57. (and Gale, Ch. 1, part II)
1981, "The Superiority of Contingent Rules over Fixed Rules in MOdels with Rational Expectations," Economic Journal 91, 647--70.
"Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy," JMCB, Nov. 1980, pp. 716--746.
"Monetary Policy During a Transition to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, 1975.
1986, "Analytical Policy Design under Rational Expectations," Econometrica 54, 1387--1406. (Control theory under RE)
1988, "Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review 78(2), May, 435--39.
1986, "Alternative Explanations of the Money- Income Correlation," Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25, 49--101, Autumn.
McCallum 11.4, 16
1981, "Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations,
Journal of Monetary Economics 8, 319--29.
1986, "Some Issues Concerning Interest RAte Pegging, Price Level Determinacy, and the Real Bills Doctrine," Journal of Monetary Economics 17, 135--160.
"Interest-Rate Targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics 23(1), Jan. 1989, 3--30. (Feasibility of nominal interest rate targeting and price level restraint under RE.)
1987, "Interest Rate Smoothing and Price Level Trend-Stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics 19, May, 335--48.
1989, "Monetary Targeting and Price Level Non- Trend-Stationarity," JMCB 21(2), May.
Howitt, "Activist Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, 1981.
Woglom, "Rational expectations and Monetary Policy in a Simple Macroeconomic Model," Quarterly Journal of Economics 1979.
Woglom, "Underemployment Equilibrium with Rational Expectations," Quarterly Journal of Economics 1982.
Begg, "Rational Expectations and the Non-Neutrality of Systematic Monetary Policy, Review of Economic Studies 1980.
McCallum 12
1988, "Robustness Properties of a Rule for Monetary Policy," Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy 29, Autumn.
Scarth 6.2
1989, "Time Consistency and Subgame Perfect Equilibria in a Monetary Policy Game," JMACRO 11(4), Fall, 575--88. (A simple taxonomy of various meanings of "time consistency" in the literature.)
, "Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, June 1977, pp. 473--492.
, "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government, and the Benefits of the Constitution," Economic Inquiry 24, July 1986, pp. 367--388.
, "A Positive Theory of Money," August 1983, pp. 589--610.
1986, "Principles of Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics 17(1), January, pp. 117--134.
Stutzer, "Time Inconsistency of Optimal Plans: An Elementary Primer," Minneapolis Federal Research Report
Hillier and Malcomson, 1984, "Dynamic Inconsistency, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Government Policy," Econometrica November
Prescott, "Should Control Theory be used for Economic Stabilization?", Journal of Monetary Economics, Supplement 7, 1977.
Calvo, "On the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, 1978 (No. 6).
S. Fischer, "Dynamic Inconsistency, Cooperation, and the Benevolent Dissembling Government," J. of Economic Dynamics and Control. (February 1980)
Turnovsky and Brock, "Time Inconsistency and Optimal Government Policies in Perfect Foresight Equilibrium," J. of Public Economics (April 1980)
Lucas, "Rules, Discretion and the Role of the Economic Advisor," in Rational Expectations and Economic Policy,
S. Fischer, ed., 1980, and Studies in Business Cycle Theory, Lucas, ed.. 1981.
Simons, "Rules Versus Authorities in Monetary Policy, 1986, " Journal of Political Economy, February.
and John Driffill. "Inflation and Reputation," AER (June 1985a), pp. 530--38.
, "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," Review of Economic Studies, (1985b), pp. 211--21.
1985, "Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy with Incomplete Information," manuscript, University of Rochester (February ),Forthcoming. Journal of Political Economy.
and David B. Gordon. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics (July 1983a), pp. 101--22.
, "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation Under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, 1987?.
Rogoff, Kenneth. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1986?
"Reputational Constraints on Monetary Policy," Carnegie- Rochester Conference on Public Policy 26, 141--181. (A survey.)
\cbflg{OPEN ECONOMY CONSIDERATIONS}
McCallum 14
1989, "The Choice of Monetary Instrument in Two Interdependent Economies under Uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 121--133. (HW: redo in McCallums framework.)
\cbflg{ENDOGENOUS MONEY}
, 1984, "Money, Credit and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," AER 74, 363--380.
1989, "The Effect of Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Target on Market Interest Rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics 24(3), Nov. (Supports the expectations theory of the term structure under the assumption of interest rate targeting.)
"INterest RAte Smoothing and Price Level Trend-Stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics 19, 335--48.
1988, Horizontalists and Verticalists (NY: Cambridge University Press, )
1984, "The Sociopolitical Analysis of Inflation," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 120 (1), 90--120.
\cbflg{CONSUMPTION}
1989, "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, May, 275--298. (Shows that relaxation of certainty equivalence can explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to transitory income, the high growth of consumption in the presence of a low risk-free interest rate, an the underspending of the elderly.)
Gapinsky, Ch 5.
Macroeconomic Theory and Policy, MacMillan, NY, 1978, ch. 17.
Sargent XII , 1973 , 1954
1976, "Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Consumption," AER 66, May, pp. 87--93.
"Distribution Effects of the Aggregate Consumption Function," Journal of Political Economy 83(3), 1975, pp. 447--448.
1980, "Income Distribution and the Aggregate Consumption Function," Journal of Political Economy 88, June 1980, pp. 504--575.
Permanent Income, Wealth, and Consumption, Chapters 2 and 16.
"Monetary Policy and Consumption, in Consumer Spending and Monetary Policy: The Linkage, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston," pp. 9--5 and Dusenberry's comments.
Topics in Applied Econometrics, Gray-Mills, 1973.
1943, "The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations," Econometrica, January, 1- 12.
, "A Statistical Illusion in Judging Keynesian Models," Journal of Political Economy 6 (1), February 1957, 64- 75. (The errors in variable problem)
1972, "The Role of Interest Rates and Inflation in the Consumption Function," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1,.
Friedman, M. A Theory of the Consumption Function, Chapters 2, 3, and 9.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political Economy 82 (6), Nov./Dec. 1974, pp. 1095--1118.
1990, "Expenditure on Durable Goods: A Case for Slow Adjustment," Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(3), August, 727--744. (Shows that apparent random walk behavior of durable consumption, in violation of PIH, disappears if slow adjustment allowed.)
, "Interpreting Econometric Evidence," European Economic Review 16(1), May 1981, pp. 177--192.
, "An Empirical Structural Model of Aggregate Demand, Journal of Monetary Economics 7(1), January 1981, pp. 1--28.
"The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income, Journal of Political Economy 89(5), October 1981, pp. 974--1009.
1986, "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review 76(3) (June), pp. 314-334.
"The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(3), Aug.1990, 575--597. (A non-technical argument that increase forecast uncertainty reduces durable goods consumption.)
"Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," J. Finance 25, May 1970.
, "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica 50(5), 1269--86, Sep 1982. [This paper was awarded the Frisch medal, and is generally considered an outstanding example of the search for "deep" parameters.]
, "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Return," Journal of Political Economy 91 (2), 249--65, March 1983.
Edward, "The Equity Premium: A Puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics 15(2