Research
‘Emptying Nest’ Demographic Leans Obama Says New Study
In the final countdown to the 2012 presidential election, a new analysis by American University and Patchwork Nation suggests that a popular/electoral vote split is a very real possibility, says American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies Fellow Dante Chinni. And aging Midwestern counties give the president an edge in the race to 270 electoral votes, Chinni says.
The findings come from an examination of the latest Pew Research Center presidential poll using the Patchwork Nation demographic/geographic breakdown of U.S. counties. Chinni is also director of the Patchwork Nation.
That analysis shows:
• President Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 11 percentage points in the aging “Emptying Nest” counties nationally.
• The Emptying Nests may be crucial because they hold large portions of the population in key swing states like Ohio (11%), Wisconsin (20%) and Iowa (32%).
• The wealthy, suburban “Monied Burbs” counties, which are always crucial, are extremely close, with Obama leading by one percentage point.
The numbers are significant, because the American University/Patchwork Nation breakdown of the Pew numbers shows that in other key county types the 2012 split between Obama and Romney looks quite similar to the results from the 2004 presidential race. With that being the case, the Emptying Nests could be the difference particularly because of their location in key swing states.
County Type |
Kerry 04 |
Bush 04 |
Obama 12 |
Romney 12 |
04/12 Margin Difference |
|
Boom Towns |
41 |
58 |
41 |
55 |
+3 D |
|
Campus Careers |
55 |
44 |
53 |
41 |
+1 D |
|
Emptying Nests |
43 |
56 |
52 |
41 |
+24 D |
|
Evang. Epicenters |
34 |
65 |
30 |
68 |
+7 R |
|
Immigration Nat. |
45 |
54 |
43 |
44 |
+8 D |
|
Industrial Metro |
63 |
36 |
64 |
32 |
+5 D |
|
Military Bastions |
43 |
56 |
42 |
51 |
+4 D |
|
Minority Central |
48 |
51 |
45 |
47 |
+1 R |
|
Monied Burbs |
50 |
49 |
47 |
46 |
0 |
|
Mormon Outposts |
18 |
80 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
Service Workers |
43 |
55 |
42 |
53 |
+1D |
|
Tractor Country |
68 |
30 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
NA=Sample too small to report
The overall data suggest the national popular vote is very close and could easily go to either candidate. The national results in the Pew poll, a survey of nearly 1,500 likely voters conducted from October 24 – 28, showed a 47% - 47% tie between the two men.