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Will 2014 Midterm Elections Be a Republican Wave?

WHO: American University Midterm Election Experts 

WHAT: Midterm Election Discussion & Analysis

WHEN: October 6-ongoing

WHERE:  American University, in-studio, or via telephone

October 6, 2014 (Washington, D.C.) –  With the midterm elections less than six weeks away, the political landscape in Washington could shift the Senate to the Republican. Will the GOP win a Senate majority? Can House Republicans increase their majority? What will voter turnout be like? How will international crises affect the final weeks of campaigning? What will results mean for the race for the White House in 2016? American University experts below are available to answer these questions and others.

2014 Congressional Elections, Relations with President Obama &Campaign Finance

James Thurber
, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, is available to make predictions of what will happen, the impact of the election on presidential-congressional relations, and what impact the election will have on policy.

Allan Lichtman, professor of history, is a presidential historian and expert on both presidential and congressional elections. Lichtman is available to discuss why the midterm elections are crucial for the success of the last two years of the Obama administration and why the loss of the Senate would make it very difficult for the president to get appointments approved or to enact any legislation of significance.

Candice Nelson, chair of the Department of Government and director of the Campaign Management Institute, is an expert on congressional and presidential elections, campaign finance, and campaign finance reform. Nelson is available to discuss congressional campaigns and campaign finance.

Connie Morella, former member of Congress who represented Maryland's 8th district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1987 to 2003 and later served as the U.S. Ambassador to the OECD, is available to discuss the importance of the 2014 midterm elections, the uncompetitive nature of House races, issues on voters' minds, vulnerability shifts, a one party legislative branch, and the President's influence on the elections and post-election.

Antoine Yoshinaka, assistant professor in the Department of Government, is an expert on how institutions and the preferences of political actors influence political outcomes. Yoshinaka is available to discuss polarization, the chances of each party to win (or retain) the House and Senate, and the prospects for Obama in 2015.

Senate Elections

Patrick Griffin, academic director of the Public Affairs & Advocacy Institute, served in the White House as assistant to the President for legislative affairs, 1994-96. Griffin also held several positions in the U.S. Senate including Secretary for the Democrats, and the positions of professional staff member on the Senate Democratic Policy Committee and the Senate Budget Committee. Griffin is available to discuss key Senate elections and what a Republican majority Senate could mean for the next two years for President Obama's legislative agenda.

Voting and Candidate Behavior

Jennifer Lawless, director of the Women &Politics Institute, is a nationally recognized expert on women's involvement in politics. Lawless is the author of Becoming a Candidate: Political Ambition and the Decision to Run for Office and the co-author (with Richard L. Fox) of the book, It Still Takes a Candidate: Why Women Don't Run for Office. Two recent studies Girls Just Wanna Not Run and It's the Family, Stupid? Not Quite...How Traditional Gender Roles Do Not Affect Women's Political Ambition identify and dispel myths of why women do not seek elected political office. Lawless is available to discuss Congressional races, women voters, women candidates, and the 2016 White House race.

Jan Leighley, government professor, is an expert on U.S. political behavior, voter turnout, media and politics, and racial/ethnic political behavior. She is the author of Who Votes Now? Demographics, Issues, Inequality and Turnout in the United States. Leighley is available to discuss voter turnout, issues regarding race/ethnicity, inequality and voter interest and apathy.

David Lublin, government professor, is author of The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymandering and Minority Interests in Congress and The Republican South: Democratization and Partisan Change. Lublin is available to discuss Senate elections, the South, Black and Latino voting.

Foreign Affairs Impact on Elections

Gordon Adams, professor of U.S. foreign policy, is an expert on defense and national security policy, the defense policy process, and national security budgets. During the Clinton administration he was in charge of the national security and defense budget at the Office of Management and Budget. Adams is available to discuss the impact of defense issues on the election, the role of the ISIS conflict and the President's rating around foreign policy issues on the election and the forecast of the impact of the election on budget negotiations in the lame duck and the new Congress.

James Goldgeier, dean of the School of International Service, is an expert on contemporary U.S. foreign policy, NATO, and U.S.-Russian relations. Dean Goldgeier is available to discuss why foreign policy is unlikely to have a big impact on the midterms and how candidates from both parties will begin positioning themselves in earnest after the elections.

American University is a leader in global education, enrolling a diverse student body from throughout the United States and nearly 140 countries. Located in Washington, D.C., the university provides opportunities for academic excellence, public service, and internships in the nation’s capital and around the world.