THE FUTURE OF SPACE MINING (SPACEMIN Case)
CASE NUMBER: 177
CASE MNEMONIC: SPACEMIN
CASE NAME: The Future of Space Mining
A. IDENTIFICATION
1. The Issue
There are many obstacles to mining in space. Currently,
scientists and mining experts are just beginning to do theoretical
studies about what they might find. Developing ways to actually
extract materials is a distant second on their agenda. Why is this
type of research and activity still in its infancy? The answer may
lie in simple economics.
First, the exorbitant cost of transporting items into space
(about $2-3,000 per pound) means that any space bases (lunar,
Martian, etc.) must be able to procure their necessities form
space. (Zaburunov 16N) Most importantly, they must be able to
find water, oxygen and fuel. Even should these basic items be
found, the problem of extraction must still be overcome.
Another problem with mining in space is that there is little
hard evidence about what materials actually exist in/on asteroids,
the moon and mars. Scientists have made many educated guesses
about this based upon studies done on asteroid fragments and lunar
soil and rock samples from Apollo missions. These samples show
traces of materials that can be found here on earth such as nickel,
iron, platinum (Gertsch, Maryniak 1041), water and oxygen (Stewart,
Chamberlain 13). However, until scientists, geologist and miners
actually venture into space to do comprehensive mineral surveys and
exploration, any remarks about the rewards to be found from mining
in space will be mostly theoretical.
Extraction of materials is actually a greater problem than
finding minerals. Mining resources in the vacuum of space presents
scientists with obstacles not found on earth. For example, in
order to process mined materials into a useable product, water,
along with other elements, is necessary in known processes to sift
through material and cool and lubricate drills (Burt 574).
However, in space, a ready water source may not be available.
As one can see, there are many obstacles to be overcome before
mining in space becomes a reality. The lack of research in this
area is especially alarming when one considers NASAs long-term
agenda which consists of a mission to Mars and a lunar base. If
these are to be realized, they must be made economically feasible.
This means that Mars missions and lunar bases have to be able to
gain most of their needed resources from their space environments.
(Zaburunov 16L) The figure provided at the end of this paper shows
one approach to the development of space. As one can see, any true
exploitation of resources from asteroids or the moons may take
decades to become a reality.
Research about mining in space may be encouraged by
competition among nations. For instance, Japan has plans for
probes to be sent to the moon to do geological and mineral surveys
for possible resource extraction or lunar bases. This may
encourage the US to become more involved in order to keep its
competitive edge in space. (16L)
Information on the effects of human exploitation of space
resources on the general environment of space is sketchy at best.
However the information that was found suggests that scientists are
more concerned with how the space environment will harm spaceships
and lunar bases, than how the spaceships and lunar bases will
affect the space environment. (Nagatomo, Kuriki 61) However, when
one contemplates the erosion extensive mining on asteroids and the
moon will necessarily cause, as well as the fact that humans living
in outer space for an extended period of time will have to dispose
of the waste from their everyday living, one begins to see that the
effect of humans on the outer space environment will be quite
large.
Finally, the economics of space exploration and
exploitation are such that only governments can afford to engage in
this activity. When project costs are in the billions of dollars,
private companies are simply unable to compete. (Branscome 221)
The table provided at the end of this paper shows the return on an
investment of asteroid or lunar resource exploitation. In
addition, it shows the length of time necessary for completing a
mission. That alone would make private companies balk at engaging
in this type of investment.
The mineral exploitation of outer space is decades away yet
since the mid 1970's, this activity has been the subject of
countless feasibility studies. For some, the activity brings to
mind visions of tapping extra-terrestrial treasure troves, for
others merely the chance to supply the raw materials needed by the
fledgling space industrial complexes which many see as inevitable.
This case explores the present state of space usage, technical
issues which surround space mining, the economic necessity of the
activity if space is to be utilized, and the most likely economic
and environmental effects of this activity. While this activity if
it takes place will to a large extent be global, the interests of
the United States are addressed and given preeminence over those of
foreign competitors.
2. Description
The Moon landing of Apollo 12 in 1969 fired the imagination of
the nation. Whereas spaceflight had been the province of science
fiction writers, fantasy had become reality. During the 1970's
mainstream scientists were predicting the establishment of a
permanent lunar base by the year 2000 and martian colonies soon to
follow. However these predications were not realized for several
reasons. First of all fiscal constraints caused by the Oil price
hicks of the latter 70's and deficit spending to finance the
increased military buildup in the 80's, limited the amount of
resources which could be devoted to space exploration and economic
exploitation. Secondly there was no sense of urgency, resources are
seen as abundant. However recent environmental depredation,
especially dealing with the oceanic environment, has
led many to believe it would bet better environmental policy to
remove harmful extraction and manufacturing processes out of the
ecosystem (See COBALT case).
While colonization has not occurred, space has still become an
invaluable economic resource. The satellite communications industry
generates $3 billion annually from the transmission and reception
of electronic signals from E-mail to television broadcasts. In
addition satellites have become an invaluable resource in many
diverse areas. Landsat satellites launched in the 1970's have
photographed remote areas which has enabled the mapping of areas
largely inaccessible to ground observation. Other satellites are
used to track the sources of pollution which causes acid rain,
hurricane paths, and to study agriculture. The estimated total
space bossiness which includes rocket and satellite production, in
addition to the satellite launching, is around $100 billion yearly.
"Peter Glaser, a vice president for space operations at Arthur D.
Little, A Cambridge Mass., consulting firm, has studies
applications for years. He has, he says, come to a new conclusion;
We're not going there for the glory anymore, We're going there for
the money." (Bernstein 82)
As a result of the tremendous growth in space communications,
great interests in future expanded economic utilization of space
exists. In 1986, a multimillion dollar grant was awarded to the
University of Wisconsin-Madisson's Engineering department to study
commercial applications of space. The grant was for research in
food production, the use of robots, and to study the feasibility of
mining Helium 3 on the Moon. Helium 3 is a gas which is not present
on Earth but is known to be plentiful in space. This gas is seen as
a critical component in the development of the emerging technology
of nuclear fusion. "Faculty at Wisconsin Madison have developed a
concept to use Helium 3 in a radiation free Fusion reactor. In
order for that concept to be implemented it would first be
necessary to procure the gas in sufficient quantities to experiment
on. While there is disagreement over the advisability and timing
over space exploitation, most agree that we have only scratched the
surface of the economic potential of this "final frontier." The
manufacture of materials in space such as crystals, alloys, and
pharmaceutical are as potentially lucrative, if not more so, then
the current computer revolution and the emerging field of genetic
engineering.
Why then hasn't the pace of space utilization increased. As
with most new untried ventures the tremendous cost of getting
started has prevented a quickened pace. In May 1989, a conference
on the costs of transporting materials into space and the
feasibility of mining in space was held in Colorado. Egons
Podnieks, a senior staff scientist for the bureau of mines
described differing costs inherent in material transportation form
earth and the moon. "Consider that only 1.5% of the total mass of
the space shuttle is actual payload when traveling up to low earth
orbit (LEO). A launch from the moon would contain up to 50% if
desired. The cost for attaining LEO varies with the delivery
system, with a minimum cost of about $2,000/lb. A corresponding
launch from the moon would require only 5% to 15% in terms of
energy." Podnieks, who is familiar with the mining industry,
believes that it makes sense to plan to mine the moon and other
spatial bodies by building on current technology and forming simple
and practical plans as opposed to futuristic exotic scenarios. One
example is that the best location for a space mine is primarily
underground as opposed to open pits. Podnieks states that it makes
sense to have the miners work ia am environment which can be
pressurized and necessitate little use of bulking spacesuits except
when leaving the mining area. (Zaburanov 46k)
Who will benefit from the exploitation of space? Information
on this area has made plain that the costs of initial start-up and
initial maintenance are beyond the capability of the non
industrialized nations, specifically the European Union, The U.S.,
and Japan. Each of these countries has positive and negative
factors which will determine how large a share of space industry
and mining they will control. The U.S. has several advantages.
First of all the previously mentioned public and private commitment
to space research. Secondly a great deal of governmental research
has gone into space "Space ventures require investments beyond the
capacity of the private sector. Already the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA) has spent more then $200 billion
(in current dollars), much of it to create the infrastructure
needed to exploit space." (Osborne 45) Like any momentous
undertaking a planning stage is required, thanks to some far-
sighted policy makers a fair amount of planning has already been
accomplished. During The presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George
Bush, space was seen as a possible solution to pressing
international and domestic problems. Reagan is famous for his
commitment to SDI, an antimissile system of laser tipped
satellites. Although never implemented, billions of dollars were
poured into research. Once the threat of the Cold War ended it
seemed like a good policy to push space utilization. President Bush
on the other hand was interested in offsetting the recession caused
by demobilization of most of America's military infrastructure,
channeling more resources in the direction mapped out by his
predecessor seemed prudent.
However the U.S. has some negative factors. First of all
American's are very finicky and without a common threat like the
former Soviet Union, they are unlikely to support a long costly
program showing little or no return. Another negative factor is the
deficit which we have not yet been able to eradicate. Unlike the
1950's when we had large amounts of discretionary income, tokays
lean budgets preclude any massive investments in space. On the
other hand several factors benefit foreign competitors. "Foreign
companies, particular in France, Germany, and Japan have expressed
a willingness to invest now for profits that they may not see for
fifteen or twenty years-a luxury that very few American companies
can afford." Also as has been mentioned in numerous other business
reports foreign companies have benefited from their acquisition of
U.S. R&D;. The foreign space program,s have the advantage of
concentrating their resources into areas which U.S. research has
shown to be promising avenues for commercialization. Since these
companies have not had to bear the costs of initial research they
are in a much better position financially. (Osborne 45) The Russian
space program also has a key advantage over ours. In the area of
materials processing, experimenting to see which materials can be
engineered profitably in space the Russian's have conducted 1500
experiments as opposed to approximately 100 conducted by NASA.
Japan has also has made some concrete plans to use space for
economic gain. "According to Yasunori Matogawa of Japan's Institute
for Space and Astrophysical Science, several Japanese companies are
making efforts to participate in the development of a manned lunar
base early in the 21st century. Shimizu Corp., the worlds largest
construction company, has opened a space projects office, with an
eye toward lunar base and other related concepts." Other companies
have set up research grants to plan on building space habitats.
(Zubaranov 46k)
Despite their commitment to space, many of our potential
competitors have their own problems which also slow down their
dreams of manufacturing in space. Japan and Germany (the driving
engine in the EU) are facing their own fiscal crisisses. Japan is
facing the problem of dealing with a greying population and Germany
is still dealing with the problems of reunification.
I should mention the Third World, as they are the ones who
will not benefit if space mining ever becomes a reality. While manu
of these countries have valuable resources, none of them has the
necessary human capital or economic resources to mount a successful
mining venture of their own. In order to compete with the space
mining they will probably resort to cutting corners environmentally
in order to continue to finance their economic development (see PAPUA case).
What then will this activity be like, unfortunately the only
answers are a few hypothetical responses crafted by men like Carl
Sagan and Arthur C. Clarke. Despite this dearth of information a
few educated guesses and suppositions can be made.
There are concerns that increased launches of space vehicles
will cause weather imbalances as a result of upper atmospheric
disturbances caused by expelled rocket fuel, There have been
several studies done on this issue but so far the results are
inconclusive.
On the whole the widespread movement of industry and mining
would be seen as a boon to the planet environmentally. All
hazardous materials produced would be disposed of either by
disposing of it by sending it to the sun or by leaving them at the
mining site. While it will be necessary to make sure there is no
danger of such materials reentering Earth;s atmosphere, on the
whole these concerns seem minor compared to our present
proliferation of hazardous waste dumps.
The first likely mineral sources in space will be near earth
asteroids. While most asteroids which number in the millions are
located in a belt between Mars and Jupiter, there are some near
neighbors which are highly promising mineral sources. The first two
were discovered by NASA JPL scientists who are on constant watch
for heavenly bodies which might collide with earth. Using
telescopic spectroscopy, which analyzes light reflected from
objects, the scientists were able to determine the nickel iron
makeup of the two asteroids, known as 1985 EB and 1986DA. Both
asteroids are about the same distance from the earth as the moon,
though they are not in the lunar orbit. (Ricks 77) More recently
1993 BX3, another near earth metallic asteroid was discovered. This
asteroid is a few hundred meters across and ways several million
tons. It is estimated that two to three thousand such asteroids are
in near earth orbit, though all are not metallic, and thus
unsuitable for mining except as a source for stone. (Pockler 14)
Why do we need to mine for iron and nickel in outer space?
According to most experts we have enough of all major commodities
to last at least 300 years. The answer is economic. While the
initial construction of space stations dedicated to manufacturing
new higher quality goods the costs of maintaining and expanding
these initial ventures would be cost prohibitive. In addition to
high tech electronics, but water and fuel among other bulk
materials will be necessary to sustain the new manufacturing
complexes.
Water is for most of us a resource we take for granted.
However in space it is worth more then it's weight in gold. Besides
drinking water can be used to manufacture oxygen, a material which
also is bulky in large amounts. John Lewis who works at Arizona
State's space research center had this to say about mining."A mine
in space would cost millions to operate, but this is far cheaper
then the billions it would costs to continuously ferry supplies up
to the industrial enterprises. However Lewis does see problems with
setting up a lunar mine. While sufficient water is known to exists
at the moons poles and deep within craters finding actual mineral
deposits could prove tricky. Unlike the earth which concentrates
minerals in specific areas by the virtue of volcanic eruptions, the
moon is volcanically inactive, so new ways of locating minerals
will need to be found. (Gamernman)
No statement about the future can be sure to come to pass.
However as a recent article dealing with predictions about life 30
years from now that we need to make guesses about the future so
that we have some idea of what is likely to happen, and that we can
then plan for it. (Coates 51)
While much of the preceding has been based on conjecture there
is enough empirical evidence to suggest that space exploitation
will become a reality within the near future. If the U.S. wishes to
attain an integral position in this new area a longer view must be
fostered among various private and public organizations. It will be
interesting to see if the claims asserted by this study come to
pass.
3. Related Cases:
SPACEGAR Case
Keyword Clusters
(1): Trade Product = METAL
(2): Bio-geography = SPACE
(3): Environmental Problem = NA
There has been some fear of an accident in space in which
something dangerous, along the lines of a damaged nuclear reactor
would fall back to Earth and cause widespread devastation.
Scientists who study orbital mechanics have not come up with an
answer either way. There are fears of climatic changes with the
increase amount of Earth to space traffic that large scale mining
and manufacturing would bring. Again no evidence exists either way.
4. Draft Author: Michael Booth and Karen T. Saxe
B. LEGAL Clusters
5. Discourse and Status: DISagreement and COMPlete
The highly hypothetical nature of the discussion precludes any
meaningful predications about what the eventual structure os a
space mining system will entail. While it is possible that at some
future date the Third World will gain the necessary power to
bargain successfully with the developed countries in order to
receive an equitable share in future economic activities, presently
there seems little chance of that happening.
6. Forum and Scope: GLOBAL
7. Decision Breadth: GLOBAL
8. Legal Standing: NA
C. GEOGRAPHIC Clusters
9. Geographic Locations
a. Geographic Domain : SPACE
b. Geographic Site : SPACE
c. Geographic Impact : GLOBAL
10. Sub-National Factors: NO
11. Type of Habitat:SPACE
D. TRADE Clusters
12. Type of Measure:NAPP
13. Direct vs. Indirect Impacts:INDirect
14. Relation of Measure to Environmental Impact
a. Directly Related : NO
b. Indirectly Related : YES TRANSport
c. Not Related : NO
d. Process Related : NO
15. Trade Product Identification: METAL
16. Economic Data
17. Impact of Measure on Trade Competitiveness:
Initially space mines will not be able to compete within the
Earth market, as a result of transportation costs. In any case
these mines are meant to supply spatial enterprises, and they will
have the advantage in transportation costs. Eventually as more
industry leaves Earth then domestic sources of minerals will be in
an unenviable position. However these events are far off and while
it is wise to plan ahead for them, the present would be better
spent by working on short term problems which are much easier to
grasp and deal with then something that at it's soonest will be
thirty years down the road.
18. Industry Sector:
19. Exporter and Importer:YES
Since Earth will be the principle supplier of initial capital
and equipment to start up any mining enterprise, there will very
likely be a strong outward flow when the mining settlements are
being established. Once these operations have matured there will
then probably be a more equitable exchange system.
E. ENVIRONMENT Clusters
20. Environmental Problem Type:NA
21. Name, Type, and Diversity of Species
Name:NA
Type:NA
Diversity:MA
22. Impact and Effect: LOW and PRODuct
23. Urgency and Lifetime: LOW and 20-60 years
24. Substitutes: LIKE products
VI. OTHER Factors
25. Culture: NO
26. Trans-Border: YES
27. Rights: NO
28. Relevant Literature
Atwater, Mary. Exploring Space. New York: Macmillan/McGraw-Hill,
1992.
Barnes-Svarney, Patricia. "Staking A Claim." Ad Astra. Nov/Dec,
1992, 0gs. 25-26.
Bernstein, James. "Europe takes control of space launches; U.S.
Satellite Companies fear they will fall behind if payloads sit on
ground." Newsday. 13 March 1989: 82.
Branscome, Darrell K. "Legislative Perspective on the Climate for
Space Development." in Faughnan and Maryniak, 221.
Burt, Donald M. "Mining the Moon." American Scientist v. 77
Nov./Dec. 1989: 574-79.
Coates, Joseph F. "The Highly Probable Future; 83 assumptions about
the year 2025." The Futurist. July 1994: pg. 51.
Christol, Carl Quimby. The Modern International Law of Outer Space.
New York: Pergamon Press, 1002.
Faughnan, Barbara and Gregg Maryniak. Space Manufacturing 5:
Engineering with Lunar and Asteroidal Materials. New York:
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1985.
Gertsch, Richard E. And Gregg E. Maryniak. "Space Mining:
Boondoggle or the Next Gold Rush." Mining Engineering v. 43, n. 8
Aug. 1991: 1029, 1041.
Gamorman, Ellen. "Space Mining Venture Finds Roots in Arizona."
United States News Service. 4 Sept. 1992. USNS.
Glaser, Peter E. "Power from Space-An Approach to Achieve the
Development of Space Resources." Faughnan and Maryniak 33-36.
Hanoe, William H. "Prospecting Ideas." Ad Astra. March/April 1981,
Pg. 30.
Margrove, Eugene C. "Beyond Spaceship Earth: Environmental Ethics
and The Solar System." Space World. Aug 85, pg. 4.
Nagatomo, Makoto and Kyoichi Kuriki. "Energy and Environment
Research on the Space Station." Faughnan and Maryniak 57-62.
Lay, S. Houston. The Law Relating to Activities of Man in Outer
Space. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970.
O'Leary, Brian. "Phobos & Deimos (PhD): Concept for an Early Human
Mission for Resources and Science." Faughnan and Maryniak 42.
Osborne, David. "Business in space; the weightless environment of
space, in which valuable new commodities can be manufactured more
efficiently then on Earth, may be the next economic frontier for
American companies." The Atlantic. May 1985; pg. 45.
Pokley, Peter. "New-found asteroid a lodestar for miners." The
Daily Telegraph. 15 March 1993: pg. 14.
Rambaut, Paul C. "Preventing Adverse Physiological Change in Long-
Term Spaceflight." Faughnan and Maryniak 207-213.
Sagan, Carl. Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space.
New York: Random House, 1994.
Stewart, William O. And Peter G. Chamberlain. "Mining in the 21st
Century." Minerals Today Jul. 1990: 8-14.
U.S. Bureau of Mines. Space Mining Research Programs. Washington,
D.C.:U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1992.
Zaburunov, Steven A. "Mines in Space: What is NASA Doing?" E&MJ;
v. 191, n. 7 Jul. 1990: 16K-16N.
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