Mnemonic: ASIAFLU
Name: Asia Chickens and Flu Virus
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I. IdentificationAs a precautionary measure to ensure the health status of chickens imported into Hong Kong from mainland China, Dr. Paul Saw, Hong Kong's Deputy Director of Health and Chairman of the Inter-Departmental Coordinating Committee on Influenza A H5N1, announced on December 23, 1997 that the export of chicken from the Mainland to Hong Kong would be temporarily suspended beginning December 24, 1997.(1) Hong Kong's Special Administrative Region Department of Health voluntarily took this action after nine confirmed and three suspected cases of the Flu A H5N1 connected with humans, the discovery of the H5N1 virus in chicken faeces at two Ap Lei Chau markets and at a poultry stall in Cheung Sha Wan, and surges in chicken deaths in mainland China and Hong Kong in February and April 1997. Health and regulations departments of the Mainland and Hong Kong coordinated appropriate measures to contain and eliminate the spread of this virus. After the six-week ban, Hong Kong resumed the importation of live poultry from the Mainland on February 8, 1998. However, health officials have not confirmed that this virus has been eliminated. Thus, the possibility of this avian virus genetically mixing with a human one has caused serious concern for scientists all around the world. The human population would have no protection over this deadly virus as it may, in the worst case scenario, destroy all forms of human life.
From the beginning of the history of mankind until 1997, there has never been any record of a transmission of the H5N1 virus from a bird to man. However, world history changed last year as it witnessed the first human case of the avian flu virus. Studies conducted late in 1997 concluded by pointing to the exposure to chicken or its faeces as a possible source of infection of the avian flu virus. Confronting the infection of the virus to human for the first time in history without a vaccine to combat this virus, the Agriculture and Fisheries Department (AFD) planned control measures to prevent further infections. After suspending chicken imports from the Mainland, all poultry markets in Hong Kong were emptied by killing all 1.3 to 1.4 million chickens in addition to uncounted geese, ducks and other poultry in hopes of wiping out the virus in Hong Kong.(2) In order to prevent further entry of imported live poultry infected with the H5N1 virus into Hong Kong from mainland China, a new system of surveillance with the following measures was implemented as of February 7, 1998.(3) Despite plans for improved sanitation systems, this system has yet to be fully tested as its short-lived term has not quieted the criticisms of poor sanitation.
• In the Mainland, only chickens from licensed farms monitored by the Mainland animal and plant quarantine services are approved for export to Hong Kong. Hong Kong's AFD will visit these farms at random times for their own inspections.
• Chickens for export to Hong Kong will be segregated from other birds in all licensed farms for five days prior to export. These chickens will require health certificates testing negative for the H5N1 virus signed by a veterinary authority.
• Before the suspension of chicken imports from the Mainland, truck drivers delivering poultry to Hong Kong occassionally picked up poultry from unauthorized farms along the way. In order to prevent this from reoccurring in the future, AFD officers at the Man Kam To Animal Inspection Station will check and retain the health certificates which contain the identity of the farms and state the number of birds and the number of cages in the consignment.
• Thirteen samples will be taken from each truck load for blood testing at the Man Kam To entry point. The consignment will be held from sale at the Cheung Sha Wan Temporary Wholesale Poultry Market until the test results indicate that the consignment is free from the virus. If the consignment is found to be infected, the whole consignment will be destroyed and the poultry will be traced for the originating chicken farms of the virus.
Since the slaughtering of all the chickens in Hong Kong and the implementation of the new control system, no new cases of the avian flu have been reported. Thus, the virus is assumed to be eliminated and under control. Nevertheless, these avian flu viruses have left behind considerable damage and fears for the future. The avian flu victimized 18 people. Among the 18 cases, ten people have recovered, but two remain hospitalized and six cases were fatal. The 18 cases comprised of 8 males and 10 females, age ranging from 1 to 60 years old. 9 cases were children under the age of 12. 7 out of the 18 cases had a history of possible exposure to poultry. The cases came from different parts of the territory: 3 in Hong Kong Island, 6 in Kowloon, 3 in East New Territories, and 6 in West New Territories.(4) Although no conclusive patterns on the victims' infection of the virus exist, a study by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and Hong Kong's Department of Health shows that more than half the people who caught the avian flu had visited a poultry market the week before they became ill.
Unfortunately, the damage the avian flu virus has caused may not have come to an end. The following three facts still remain unchanged after all the control measures the Hong Kong and the Mainland authorities have implemented.
(1) There is still no vaccine for this virus.
(2) Medical experts do not know how this virus is transmitted to humans.
(3) Health officials have not entirely ruled out the chance of a resurgence of the virus.
These facts have alarmed medical experts around the world because the possibility remains that a strain of the avian flu virus can genetically mix with another virus (possibly a human one). If this were to happen, an entirely new flu strain would be produced, one which the human race would have no means to combat. Dr. Kanta Subbarao of the CDC flu laboratory in Atlanta believes that the human population would have no immunity against such a virus and that it could spread and cause a pandemic (a worldwide epidemic). Consequently, many experts fear a repeat of the 1918 pandemic which killed more than 20 million people. Since 1918, the world population has increased from 1.8 billion to 5.9 billion, the time for a virus to circle the globe has increased from 4 months to 4 days and the proportion that died from the 1918 flu in today's terms would equal approximately 60 million deaths.(5) Most health officials agree that the chances of a resurgence of the virus has become very slim. However, they are not entirely ruling out that possibility especially because the coming of the Hong Kong flu seasons, periods of time when viruses spread much more easily.
CHICKEN PORK NEMATODE BISON BALLAST MERCK EUMEAT MADCOW BST TIMOWL CIGAR PARROT SWIFT MEXBIRD VOA PATANAL
II. Legal
ClustersThe general political sentiment of China observers as well as the Hong Kong government during the handover of Hong Kong to China last year was the concern that Beijing would seek to unilaterally take control over Hong Kong policies and affairs. Considering the two contrasting political systems, one can suspect that a problem that involves the two governments would automatically trigger a substantial amount of dispute. An over-possessive Beijing may want to take this opportunity to establish its authority over Hong Kong. At the same time, a stubborn Hong Kong determined to retain its political legitimacy may not be willing to give the upper hand to the mainland government. However, the governments of mainland China and Hong Kong have dealt with this matter in an very cooperative manner, leaving no room for this virus to create frictions between the two governments. In fact, one positive outcome of this event (if one exists) was that the two governments proved to the Chinese citizens as well as the international community that they can work together to stamp out common problems. Also, the Hong Kong Government has not made any moves to replace mainland China with any other importers of poultry, thus proving its deep commitment to trade and economic interaction with the maindland. Even if this were the case, the U.S. would not attract Hong Kong poultry importers considering the high levels of bacteria found in a recent report of chickens from the nation's biggest poultry producers.(12)
The Government of Hong Kong Department of Health and the mainland Chinese government, in a joint effort, reacted to the outbreak of the virus.
As of now, the virus has been eliminated and contained. Although health scientists around the world have taken interest and initiative to find a vaccine for this virus, all legal standings regarding the H5N1 virus have been strictly limited to the governments of Hong Kong and mainland China.
III. Geographic
Clustersa. Geographic Domain: Asia
b. Geographic Site: East Asia
c. Geographic Impact: China
IV. Trade
ClustersBecause of the health threat imposed on Hong Kong residents, the Hong Kong Government enacted a six-week ban on all poultry imports from mainland China.
As a result of the ban, the governments of Hong Kong and mainland China in a joint effort produced an entirely new and a more effective surveillance system to eliminate further entrance spread of the avian virus in Hong Kong.
a. Directly Related to Product: YES
Since the poultry imports from maindland China carried the virus, the trade product is directly related to the danger this virus poses on human beings and the damamge it has already caused.
b. Indirectly Related to Product: YES
c. Not Related to Product: NO
d. Related to Process: YES
With the new measures of the surveillance system, all segments of poultry trade between Hong Kong and the mainland will increase, thus ultimately resulting in higher prices for the consumer. This point is elaborated in section 17.
Besides the victims of the virus themselves, other people affected by the avian flu are the chicken farmers and the employees of their businesses who suffered due to the temporary suspension of all chicken imports to Hong Kong from the Mainland. Before the ban, Hong Kong imported 80,000 birds daily, or approximately 75 to 80 percent of the territory's daily consumption. The amount of daily imports of poultry after the ban decreased substantially to about 35,000 birds.(6) The drastic slump in chicken meat sales have jeopardized the 6,000 workers at about 2,200 market stalls in Hong Kong who are already underemployed.(7) Many poultry stands have closed entirely or rescheduled their work hours to half days.
In addition to the immediate impact on the poultry market and employment within the poultry industry in both mainland China and Hong Kong, this virus has created substantial costs in other ways.
•Lessie Wei, head of the AFD, said that the stringent new tests of the flu will cost Hong Kong $1.92 million per year.(8) Unfortunately, the AFD will spend a lot more than that considering the costs it will incur for the many aspects of the new surveillance system, such as new efforts to seize smuggled poultry. Consequently, total seizures of smuggled poultry by Customs officers since the ban was introduced have been valued at $6.8 million.(9)
•Also alarmed by this virus are the top health experts around the world who continue to spend considerable amounts of money in research to prevent a pandemic from exploding.
•The outbreak of this virus has also resulted in an amendment to the Food Business (Urban Council) by-law to allow the Urban Services Department to prohibit the sales of live water birds at markets. This amendment forces poultry dealers to transport freshly slaughtered ducks and geese in refrigerated trucks if the journey takes more than an hour. Chan Yu-yuk, chairman of the Hong Kong and Kowloon Poultry Wholesale Dealer Association, responded by noting the increase in transport costs. He states that a normal truck costed approximately $160,000, but a truck with refrigerating facilities is about $350,000.(10)
•Furthermore, the outbreak of the virus has scared off tourists, and sparked a wider debate about cleanliness in Hong Kong, one of Asia's most modern and most crowded cities, with 6.4 million people packed close together.
Obviously, the costs that were created directly and indirectly as a result of this event are devastating which make a cost-benefit analysis difficult. If the health experts had created a vaccine for this virus, then a cost-benefit analysis would prove to be a much simpler task. However, without any means to combat this virus, the cost of impact is extremely difficult to calculate because all of these costs are ultimately to ensure the health of poultry consumers. Despite these high costs, the question government officials ultimately have to answer is is the price of life itself. The control measures implemented by the two governments had nothing to do with trade or economics, but rather these measures were taken to save people's lives.
However, one way of executing a cost-benefit analysis would be to show the prices of poultry before and after the outbreak of the virus. An accurate analysis would calculate the many news costs such as plastic coops used instead of wooden boxes, deposits for numerous "service fees," transport costs, etc. However, simply calculated, before the chicken ban, the wholesale price was around $10 per catty. Today's retail price has maintained levels of $28 per catty.(11) The catty value refers to the pricing of the chickens sold in crates from poultry producer to poultry sellers. The complexities involved in determining a true price of an individual in an unregulated poultry market often sold at negotiated prices make any price quotes unreliable.
V. Environment
ClustersChicken and Avian
VI. Other
FactorsThe virus also affected non-health oriented issues such as the Chinese culture. The Buddhists felt sympathy for the slaughtered animals and prayed for their souls. The Chinese were forced to celebrate their New Year's without their traditional chicken dishes. Although this point may seem rather insignificant, Americans can relate to this by thinking about eating a Thanksgiving dinner without any turkey. On the night the ban was lifted, news reports stated that numerous Chinese celebrated the glorious event. However, many still remain skeptical of the poultry imported from mainland China.
1. Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Department of Health. December 23, 1997. "Preventive Measures for Avian Flu Implemented."
2. Wilhelm, Kathy. December 30, 1997. "Hong Kong Bans Live Imports." The Associated Press.
3. Government of Hong Kong. February 7, 1998. "Resumption of Imports of Chickens from Mainland."
4. ________. January 23, 1998. "Update on Influenza A H5N1."
5. Larson, Erik. February 23, 1998. "The Flu Hunters." Time, p. 63.
6. Tatlow, Didi Kristen. February 7, 1998. "Chickens Cross the Border." The Associated Press.
7. So, Antoine. December 24, 1997. "Stall Workers Fear Import Ban Will Cost Their Jobs" Hong Kong Standard Local.
8. Tatlow. "Chickens Cross the Border."
9. "Safety Fears Over Smuggled Birds." March 28, 1998. South China Morning Post.
10. Wan, Rhonda Lam. March 28, 1998. "New Bird Rules Spark Transport Costs Row." South China Morning Post.
11. ________. March 28, 1998. "Accusations of Monopoly, Price-fixing of Chickens." South China Morning Post.
12. Reuters. February 24, 1998. "Bacteria Found In Chicken, Consumer Group Says."
Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Department of Health. January 2, 1998. "Infection Control Measures for Health Care Workers."
________. January 2, 1998. "Joint Effort to Dispose of Chicken Carcasses."
________. February 3, 1998. "Update on Avian Flu."
Ku, Genevieve. March 28, 1998. "Red Tape May See Bar On Ducks and Geese Continue." South China Morning Post.
Lee, Naomi. March 28, 1998. "Chicken Prices To Drop After Service Fees For Cages Cancelled." South China Morning Post.
Ng, Kang-Chung and Rhonda Lam Wan. March 28, 1998. "Dispute Stalls Bird Import Plan." South China Morning Post.
Recer, Paul. January 15, 1998. "Bird Flu No Threat, For Now" Associated Press.
So, Antoine and Cindy Sui. December 24, 1997. "Experts Critize Slow Responses" Hong Kong Standard Local.
Sui, Cindy. December 24, 1997. "H5N1 Virus Detected at Three Chicken Markets" Hong Kong Standard Local.
Tatlow, Didi Kristen. December 26, 1997. "More Hong Kong Flu Cases Found" The Associated Press.
________. January 14, 1998. "Bird Flu Virus Under Control" The Associated Press.
Wan, Rhonda Lam. March 28, 1998. "Chicken Importer Warns Wholesalers." South China Morning Post.
