What:

As you continue your coverage of the 2022 Midterm Elections, we would like to share with you some insights that American University experts presented at a media briefing on Wednesday, November 9, 2022.

For a link to the entire discussion please contact aumedia@american.edu.

Who:

Discussion participants included: Amy Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute for Policy & Politics; Sam Fulwood III, dean of the School of Communication; Carolyn Gallaher, senior associate dean at the School of International Service; Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at American University; and Gabriel Mathy, associate professor of economics.

These comments have been edited for length and clarity.

On how former president Donald Trump influenced the midterm elections:

Sam Fulwood III said: “I think the Republican Party, going into Election Day, was the Donald Trump Party. The results that we see reflect that —some districts were gerrymandered so solidly red. But we were all very surprised at the fact that the Republicans didn’t do better than they were expected to do, and that’s a rebuke of Trump and his policies.”

Carolyn Gallaher said: “I don’t think we have figured out how to survey people who voted for Trump in his first two presidential elections — many of those people were not greatly involved in elections before then.”

Amy Dacey said: “It was not the night that former President Trump expected and in the days and weeks to come we’ll see what effect this had on him. It was also not the night that Kevin McCarthy expected. Now he has to manage a caucus that is very different and much slimmer than he expected.”

On Roe v Wade impact on voter turnout and results:

Gabriel Mathy said: “I think the GOP is really out of touch on non-economic issues such as abortion and American democracy, and they paid the price at the polls yesterday.”

Carolyn Gallaher said: “I think it also begs the question of how sticky the abortion issue really is for Republican women. When Roe v Wade was in place and people didn’t think it was going to change, women who would typically vote Republican would just say ‘we’re going to put that aside.’ But what we see now in Montana and Kentucky and Kansas suggests that, even in these deep ruby red states women are not really interested in having that right taken away.”

Garret Martin said: “The Supreme Court ruling included a pointed warning on other rights. Having this right being taken away raises questions about other possible actions in the future. This was a wakeup call -- not just for those who felt particularly strongly about abortion, but who feel strongly about some of the other cases that were invoked.”

On President Biden’s impact on the midterms:

Sam Fulwood said: “In many ways, I see Joe Biden as the invisible man in this midterm. This was a perfect opportunity for the Republicans, because all the factors were working in their favor — particularly Biden’s anemic approval numbers. But voters overlooked their disapproval of Biden because there were so many other issues that they were concerned about –abortion, about democracy, and about Trump and his brand of Republicanism.”

Gabriel Mathy said: “Historically, the party in power gets punished if there’s a big rise in inflation. And that’s what people were expecting yesterday; that voters would be dissatisfied with the rise in inflation, they’d see their paychecks not going as far at the grocery store and gas pump, and they’d punish the party in power. They’d blame Joe Biden, and the Democrats would suffer from that. However, it seems like a lot of voters were able to put that aside and focus more on other issues.”

Amy Dacey said: “The localization was very important. Successful candidates took pieces of what the Biden administration has been able to accomplish — whether it was finally getting past the pandemic or the infrastructure bill — and talk about the local impact of those achievements and in a lot of races it’s important to not only be against something, but for something. Successful candidates are able to thread the needle and explain ‘How we have made life better’ and ‘how we will handle the challenges ahead?’”