After facing the toughest challenge of his political career to date, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected to a third term over the weekend, defeating challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan prevailed over Kilicdaroglu in a run-off election held on May 28 after the first round of voting on May 14 did not produce a clear winner.

Erdogan’s re-election means his time in power now extends into a third decade. Erdogan first took office as Turkey’s prime minister in May 2003 and served three terms before being elected president in 2014. Following this most recent re-election, Erdogan will remain in power until 2028.

Heading into this year’s election, Turkey faced a number of challenges, including a cost-of-living crisis and the aftermath of an earthquake that killed more than 50,000. We asked SIS professor Doga Eralp to discuss the challenges that lie ahead for Erdogan in his third term, how recent events may have impacted the results of the election, and what the results mean for Turkey’s relationship with NATO allies and Russia.

Turkey has faced a range of challenges over the last year, including a cost-of-living crisis, ongoing strains from the presence of 5.5 million refugees (many of them Syrians as a result of the conflict in that country), and the devastating earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in February. How did these events impact the results of the General Election?  

The Turkish economy has been underperforming due to a lack of transparency, mismanagement, and the use of financial instruments to favor the interests of oligarchs invested in the continuation of Erdogan’s autocratic regime. As much as the masses suffer from the high cost-of-living expenses, unemployment has been kept at ten percent due to patronage networks Erdogan’s AK Party (Justice and Development Party) built in the provinces, along with a semi-functioning social welfare system.

In a functional democracy, the devastation caused by the earthquake and the ineffective response of the government would have forced a wave of resignations from the government. However, in Erdogan’s Turkey, where the regime controls 90% of the mainstream media, the earthquake relief efforts have been portrayed as an immense success story. Not surprisingly, people from the earthquake region voted in favor of Erdogan simply due to having no alternative to regime support.

Growing xenophobia among the Turkish population against the refugees from Syria and Afghanistan remains a significant challenge for the regime. If the economy collapses as expected due to uncontrolled public spending, the voter base can quickly turn against the refugees. Erdogan hopes to mitigate this challenge by allowing his ultranationalist ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the Grey Wolves, to strengthen their grip on the police and the armed forces.  

Despite facing challenges that threatened to end his two-decades in office, Erdogan has been re-elected to serve another five-year term. What challenges lie ahead for Erdogan as he approaches his third decade in power? 

Erdogan’s biggest challenge will be the economy.  He managed to postpone the catastrophic freefall of the Turkish lira against the USD and the euro through his relationship with Qatar and Saudi Arabia; however, the Turkish Central Bank’s reserve is currently negative. The next two years will see higher inflation and skyrocketing unemployment that could easily turn into uncontrollable public anger against the Syrians and the Afghans.  

The US considers Turkey an important security partner in counter-terrorism efforts, particularly with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP-C), and ISIS. Does the outcome of the presidential election have any impact on this aspect of Turkey’s partnership with the US? If so, how? 

The Erdogan regime portrays itself as the West’s outpost against ISIS while openly detesting the American support for the Kurds in northern Syria. American leadership may be pressed further by Ankara to put an end to its cooperation with the PKK affiliate PYD in Northern Syria.  

Turkey is a NATO ally that also has close relations with Russia, primarily driven by economic and trade relations. What do the results of this election mean for Turkey’s relationship with its NATO allies and its relationship with Russia?  

The US will continue to rely on Turkey as a NATO ally against Russia. However, Putin and Erdogan maintain very close ties. Russia has been building Turkey’s nuclear energy infrastructure, sending millions of tourists each year to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, while Turkey has been provided direct access to Russia’s retail market through agricultural exports. The US will have to make a number of concessions to the Erdogan regime, including the approval of the new generation F16 fighter jet sales, along with readmitting Turkey into the F35 program.  

In addition to the presidential election, Turkish voters also elected 600 members to the Grand National Assembly. Since moving from a parliamentary system to a presidential system in 2018, how has the role of the Grand National Assembly changed? Additionally, what do you anticipate for relations between the Grand National Assembly and President Erdogan?  

After Turkey switched to the executive presidential system, the Turkish parliament lost a significant chunk of its legislative powers, as the new system allows for the president to carry out institutional politics without needing approval from the parliament. It is only in cases of critical changes to the constitution that the president needs the support of the parliament. In Erdogan’s third term, the relations with the parliament will not be any different from his second term, where Erdogan easily got the support of the parliament on rare occasions when he needed it.