Cuba is currently facing a complex economic crisis characterized by stagnation, macroeconomic instability, and significant social repercussions. Decades of dependence on a centralized, Soviet-style economic model have resulted in low productivity, an inflexible economic structure, and a decline in global competitiveness. Externally, factors such as U.S. sanctions, the economic collapse of its ally Venezuela, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have intensified existing vulnerabilities.

Internally, misguided policies, including the "Ordering Task" monetary reform and an excessive focus on unproductive investments in tourism, have contributed to triple-digit inflation, a depreciating peso, and increasing fiscal deficits. These issues are further complicated by severe declines in agriculture and industry, shortages of essential resources, and the emigration of young, skilled workers. Collectively, these challenges have brought Cuba to a critical moment where economic reform and social adaptation are essential.

The essays included in this dossier provide various insights into the ongoing crisis. They investigate the historical and structural roots of Cuba’s economic issues, the inefficiencies of its state-controlled model, and the urgent need for macroeconomic stabilization and institutional reform. Contributions also highlight the social reproduction crisis, marked by shifting care responsibilities and growing inequality, the structural distortions in pricing and resource allocation, and the potential for small private enterprises to revitalize the economy. Additionally, the papers examine the socio-political implications of migration and propose frameworks for renegotiating Cuba’s social contract. Together, these articles offer a comprehensive understanding of Cuba’s crisis and suggest pathways for addressing the systemic dysfunctions that hinder its development.

By Ricardo Torres, Research Fellow, CLALS, American University 

As we move through the third decade of the 21st century, Cuba remains entrenched in a severe economic crisis, which has now extended into social and political realms. The government's so-called "Special Period" has become interminable for many households. While traditional indicators show the current crisis is less severe, the situation remains dire. The GDP in 2023 is 10.1% below 2018 levels. This is better than the early 1990s collapse when the GDP fell nearly 40% in four years. However, most other aspects have worsened.

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By Anamary Maqueira Linares, Assistant Professor, University of Manitoba, Economics Department

A social reproduction crisis implies a multidimensional crisis in which the care crisis, the ‘growing gap between care needs and the resources of all kinds made available to them’, is center, but it is not the only dimension (Destremau-Zeitz 2023). Other strands -economic, ecological, political – are also present, overlapping and exacerbating with one another. None are accidental but have “deep systemic roots in the structure of our social order” (Fraser 2017, 22). This framework does not deny the influence of external factors, such as the U.S. sanctions, but emphasises the relevance of structural and systemic factors. 

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By Tamarys L. Bahamonde, Research Fellow, CLALS, American University 

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc in the 1990s triggered one of the worst economic crises in Cuba in the 20^th century. The management of that crisis started a repeated cycle of crisis, reform, and counter-reform that still persists. It is imperative to understand how decisions are made in the country to explain these cycles and their impact on Cuban incomplete and fragmented reforms.

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By Pavel Vidal, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana en Cali 

Given the current magnitude of Cuba's macroeconomic imbalances, it is crucial to establish a clear sequence and set priorities for the country's reforms. Five years ago, the focus might have been on issues like economic efficiency, productivity, the dual monetary system, sanctions, and the slow, inadequate pace of structural and institutional reforms. Today, however, in addition to these unresolved problems, Cuba faces the largest macroeconomic imbalances since the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s. This year, the fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 18%, while the country has experienced four consecutive years of triple-digit inflation and is defaulting on renegotiated external debt.

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By Ricardo Gonzalez-Águila, Ph.D. candidate, Universidad de Barcelona

The current macroeconomic crisis, particularly inflation, is not a traditional crisis that can be explained solely by demand-side factors. Of course, there is instability driven by fiscal deficits, monetary expansion, and external imbalances—this is indisputable. However, a growing part of the deficit and monetary issuance is being generated endogenously by structural and institutional productive issues that need to be addressed as part of the stabilization plan. If these issues are ignored, they will significantly undermine the plan's effectiveness.

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By Ileana Díaz, Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana, Universidad de La Habana

Cuba’s business system consists of 2,644 state-owned enterprises (including subsidiaries, MIPYMES, and 100% Cuban-owned commercial companies), 5,121 cooperatives, 9,075 private MIPYMES (although more than 11,000 have been approved), and 103 joint ventures. Additionally, there are over 500,000 self-employed workers, some of whom operate as family businesses or employ up to three workers.

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By Denisse Delgado, Research Consultant, Migration Specialist, United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and María José Espinosa, Executive Director, Center for Engagement and Advocacy in the Americas

Cuba is currently facing a complex migration crisis, which is part of a broader pattern of significant population movements throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. In recent years, this region has experienced increased migration driven by various factors, including economic hardship and poverty, political instability, violence, and natural disasters. While each country faces its own unique challenges, Cuba’s migratory trends contribute to this regional phenomenon, with Cuban migrants being motivated by a combination of economic difficulties, political discontent, and the desire for greater opportunities abroad.

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By Betsy Anaya Cruz (in collaboration with Anicia García), Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana, Universidad de La Habana

The agricultural sector plays five fundamental roles in the development process of any country: (1) increasing the domestic food supply; (2) freeing up labor for employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors; (3) expanding the market for industrial and service sector products; (4) boosting domestic savings to finance investments; and (5) generating foreign currency. In addition to these, other contributions such as supporting renewable energy, environmental care, and biodiversity conservation are now also recognized. Among these functions, the most crucial is increasing the food supply for the population and providing inputs for industry.

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By Juan Alejandro Triana, Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana, Universidad de La Habana

The Cuban economy is facing a significant downturn. A combination of internal and external factors has severely impacted an economic model that still fails to meet the country’s developmental needs or generate the growth necessary to overcome the conditions of underdevelopment. The clearest signs of this are a sustained slowdown in GDP growth, a widening current account deficit, the decline of key productive sectors, rampant inflation that shows no sign of abating, an uncontrollable wave of emigration, and a deteriorating social sector, particularly in health care and education, where indicators have worsened alarmingly.

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